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Christoph Bertram

Professor of Global Energy System and Policy Analysis

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Publications

TitleYear
Long-term global and regional GDP implications of heat stress on crops and labor
2026
Di Sheng, Jae Edmonds, Xin Zhao, Pralit Patel, Stephanie Morris, Kalyn Dorheim, Christo…
Environmental Research Letters 21 (16), 164025
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Authors:Di Sheng, Jae Edmonds, Xin Zhao, Pralit Patel, Stephanie Morris, Kalyn Dorheim, Christoph Bertram, Allen Fawcett
Publication date:08/28/2026
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:21
Issue:16
Pages:164025
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:While extensive evidence documents large physical impacts from extreme weather, empirical estimates of macroeconomic responses are often modest. This disconnect calls for stronger integration across Earth system science, impact research, and economic modeling. In this study, we advance the integration of these three dimensions within a global, multisector dynamic model to examine how heat-induced biophysical shocks in agriculture propagate through the economy. By deriving biophysical responses from emission-driven atmospheric projections, our framework links economic activity, emissions, atmospheric change, biophysical impacts, and economic responses in an internally consistent way. Under a business-as-usual future, and conditional on the selected biophysical response functions and model structure, agricultural heat stress reduces global GDP by approximately 1% by 2100, with losses reaching …
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Reducing Methane Emissions Along Global Natural Gas Supply Chain through Import Standards
2026
Ryna Yiyun Cui, Jiaxun Sun, Xinzhao Cheng, Rachel Hoesly, Julie Miller, Andy Miller, Xi…
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Authors:Ryna Yiyun Cui, Jiaxun Sun, Xinzhao Cheng, Rachel Hoesly, Julie Miller, Andy Miller, Xiaopu Sun, Brinda Yarlagadda, Christoph Bertram, Gabrielle Dreyfus, Richard Ferris, Nathan Hultman, Steven Smith, Mengye Zhu
Publication date:08/13/2026
Description:Rapidly reducing energy sector methane (CH₄) emissions is the most critical mitigation strategy to limit near-term warming. As natural gas (NG) increasingly trades across supply chains, policy measures such as methane-intensity-based import standards can tackle upstream emissions that fall outside importers’ domestic regulation authorities. Using a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-v8. 2-CGS) with explicit representation of bilateral pipeline and LNG trade flows and improved representation of regional methane emissions across the supply chain, this study assesses the effectiveness of import standards under alternative energy transition, trade, and CH₄ mitigation scenarios. We find that import standards can reduce CH₄ emissions along the NG supply chain for major importers by 58% in 2035 and by 64% in 2060 from the reference by shifting from high-intensity to low-intensity NG suppliers. However, global reductions only reach 30% because high-intensity supply is redirected to unconstrained markets. Combining import standards with either accelerated energy transition under net-zero targets or broader producer-side methane abatement helps reduce emissions leakage to achieve deeper and sustained global reductions.
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Decision informative and policy relevant scenario modeling for energy sector in sub-Saharan Africa
2026
Tiruwork B Tibebu, Penlope Yaguma, Christoph Bertram, Mel George, Kowan O’Keefe, Ryna Y…
Progress in Energy 8 (2), 023001
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Authors:Tiruwork B Tibebu, Penlope Yaguma, Christoph Bertram, Mel George, Kowan O’Keefe, Ryna Yiyun Cui
Publication date:06/01/2026
Journal:Progress in Energy
Volume:8
Issue:2
Pages:023001
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Scenario modeling in the energy sector has served as a valuable tool to inform decision making with alternative forward-looking pathways. These exercises are particularly useful for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, given the high levels of uncertainty. However, current scenario analyses for SSA often fail to connect modeling assumptions with the region’s evolving development trajectories, renewable energy and environmental goals, electricity access and demand profiles that are rooted in socio-economic and infrastructural realities, and collective governance, institutional, and financial capacities that shape the feasibility of energy transition. The perspective is intended as a practical guide to frame scenario modeling for SSA towards policy and decision relevance and feasibility. We propose four dimensions along which scenario assumptions are specified and three scenario archetypes that are relevant to …
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Regional impacts on decarbonisation under evolving financing conditions for energy technologies
2026
Natasha Frilingou, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-B…
Nature Communications
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Authors:Natasha Frilingou, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Thomas Nikolakakis, Anastasios Karamaneas, Kimon Georgiou, Konstantinos Koasidis, Shivika Mittal, Charalampos Platias, Conall Heussaff, Christoph Bertram, Alexandros Nikas
Publication date:05/19/2026
Journal:Nature Communications
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group UK
Description:Energy-sector decarbonisation requires large-scale investment in low-carbon technologies, yet only a limited share flows to low- and middle-income countries, partly due to higher financing costs and perceived risks. Most modelling exercises do not fully account for how the cost of capital may vary across regions and technologies, potentially influencing policy insights. We examine how plausible, expert-informed long-term trends in de-risking clean energy and increasing risks for fossil fuels could shape decarbonisation pathways, using an empirical dataset differentiated by country and technology. We also evaluate a “corrective justice” policy that taxes corporate windfall profits and redistributes revenues to support low-carbon investments in higher-risk regions. Results suggest that incorporating differentiated cost-of-capital trajectories may improve mitigation outcomes and help narrow the gap between current …
Cited by:2
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Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal
2026
Isabela S Tagomori, Fabio A Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis …
Nature Climate Change, 1-8
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Authors:Isabela S Tagomori, Fabio A Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Elena Hooijschuur, Gokul Iyer, Jarmo S Kikstra, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Yang Ou, Lara Aleluia Reis, Oliver Richters, Pedro RR Rochedo, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Matthew Zwerling, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren
Publication date:04/22/2026
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Pages:1-8
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group UK
Description:Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry.
Cited by:9
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Energy investments in the NGFS long-term scenarios Phase V
2025
C Guo, Christoph Bertram, Ed Byers, Jae Edmonds, Allen Fawcett, Jay Fuhrman, Mel George…
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Authors:C Guo, Christoph Bertram, Ed Byers, Jae Edmonds, Allen Fawcett, Jay Fuhrman, Mel George, Léa Hayez, Yiyi Ju, Elmar Kriegler, Fabrice Lécuyer, Gunnar Luderer, B van Ruijven
Publication date:12/04/2025
Publisher:Network for Greening the Financial System
Description:This report assesses global and regional energy investment needs under the NGFS Phase V long-term scenarios, benchmarked against historical investment data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BloombergNEF (BNEF). The NGFS scenarios results for 2025 are broadly in line, although they do not exactly match the numbers from BNEF and IEA due to differences in scope, methodology, and assumptions. The report provides forward-looking comparisons of investment trajectories to inform central banks, financial institutions, and policymakers of the structural and regional allocations of investment capital required to achieve climate objectives aligned with the Paris Agreement.
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Analysing macro-economic effects of regionally differentiated climate and energy policies in the global integrated assessment model GCAM
2025
Christoph Bertram, Allen Fawcett, Yiyun Ryna Cui, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Tiruwork T…
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2025, GC22E-02
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Allen Fawcett, Yiyun Ryna Cui, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Tiruwork Tibebu, Chaoyi Guo, Jiyong Eom
Publication date:12/01/2025
Journal:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
Volume:2025
Pages:GC22E-02
Description:A key concern of policymakers related to climate mitigation is that higher cost of low-carbon technologies may raise consumer prices and depress economic activity measured as gross domestic product (GDP), and thus reduce welfare. General equilibrium models often by design start from an optimal equilibrium as the in a no policy baseline, which causes climate policy interventions to exhibit positive mitigation costs by design. However, various well-documented market failures, such as information asymmetries, network externalities, and capital market imperfections, can lead to suboptimal real-world deployment of novel low-carbon technologies. In such cases, policy intervention can, in theory, lead to gains in GDP and overall welfare. Such effects are represented in many newer modeling frameworks, but generally lack in the large-scale global integrated assessment models commonly employed in major model …
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Note on key assumptions of NGFS long-term scenarios Phase V
2025
Y Ju, J Anz, C Bertram, J Edmonds, A Fawcett, J Fuhrman, M George, L Hayez, I Hurst, K …
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Authors:Y Ju, J Anz, C Bertram, J Edmonds, A Fawcett, J Fuhrman, M George, L Hayez, I Hurst, K Kornhuber, E Kriegler, F Lecuyer, F Piontek, C-F Schleussner, N Schwind, F Sferra, B van Ruijven, A Zimmer
Publication date:11/01/2025
Publisher:Note on key assumptions of NGFS long-term scenarios Phase V. Network of Greening the Financial System
Description:The Network for Greening the Financial System has developed long-term climate scenarios for financial institutions, aligned with the latest climate impact and climate transition science. The scenarios stem from an ensemble of models including three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), one macroeconomic model, and tools for climate impact projections. This note explains the key modelling assumptions driving the scenario results, in terms of transition risks, physical risks, and macroeconomic impacts.
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NGFS long-term scenarios, narratives and key findings: Net Zero 2050, Current Policies and Fragmented World
2025
Léa Hayez, Fabrice Lécuyer, Mel George, Yiyi Ju, Meghal Arora, M Stevanovic, Jacob Anz,…
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Authors:Léa Hayez, Fabrice Lécuyer, Mel George, Yiyi Ju, Meghal Arora, M Stevanovic, Jacob Anz, Christoph Bertram, Jae Edmonds, Allen Fawcett, Jay Fuhrman, Gunnar Luderer, Franziska Piontek, C-F Schleussner, Bas van Ruijven, Anne Zimmer, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:11/01/2025
Publisher:Network for Greening the Financial System
Description:In November 2024, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published its fifth vintage of long-term scenarios, providing financial institutions with key information to assess and manage climate-related transition and physical risks. The scenarios stem from the integration of an ensemble of models including three Integrated Assessment Models (REMIND-MAgPIE, GCAM and MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM), the macroeconomic model NIGEM and climate-impact projection tools. This report provides important context to NGFS scenario users for the assessment of financial and macroeconomic risks associated with three of the NGFS scenarios: Net Zero 2050, Current Policies and Fragmented World. For these scenarios, the report describes the underlying narratives and selected quantitative features, including model comparison.
Cited by:1
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Aligning differentiated mitigation capacity with the Paris agreement goals
2025
Elina Brutschin, Christoph Bertram, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Valentina Bosetti, Vassilis…
Environmental Research: Climate 4 (4), 045012
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Authors:Elina Brutschin, Christoph Bertram, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Valentina Bosetti, Vassilis Daioglou, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitrios Fragkiadakis, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jiang Kejun, Volker Krey, Jarmo Kikstra, Silvia Pianta, Setu Pelz, Keywan Riahi, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Roberto Schaeffer, Karl Scheifinger, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi
Publication date:10/31/2025
Journal:Environmental Research: Climate
Volume:4
Issue:4
Pages:045012
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Regional disparities in mitigation capacity and the slow deployment of certain novel technologies pose significant challenges to achieving ambitious climate goals. We explore how accounting for technological and mitigation capacity considerations alters the regional distribution of mitigation efforts, and how these shifts relate to fairness considerations, all while staying within the scenario space aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. To do so, we use a new set of scenarios generated using eight global integrated assessment models (IAMs). These scenarios shift near-term mitigation efforts to regions with greater mitigation capacity by implementing differentiated carbon pricing and emission caps, deviating from the default …
Cited by:3
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High Ambition Pathways for Indonesia’s 2035 NDC and Net-zero emissions
2025
Ryna Cui, Jiehong Lou, Maria A Borrero, Jenna Behrendt, Xinyue Li, Audrey Rader, Molly …
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Authors:Ryna Cui, Jiehong Lou, Maria A Borrero, Jenna Behrendt, Xinyue Li, Audrey Rader, Molly Schreier, Claire Squire, Tiruwork Berhanu Tibebu, Christoph Bertram, Andy Miller, Dmitry Churlyaev, Mohammed Syed, Nate Hultman, A Miller, D Churlyaev, N Hultman
Publication date:09/01/2025
Description:This report presents plausible, High Ambition pathways for Indonesia that achieve a 46%-49% reduction in economy-wide GHG emissions by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2060. Under these pathways, emissions from all major sources, including energy, land, and non-CO2 gases have the potential for meaningful reductions and need to be addressed with immediate actions. By contrast, existing policies and targets rely heavily on the land use sector for near-term emissions abatement, while allowing the other sectors to continue emissions growth. In addition, this analysis identifies the policy priorities in each sector and the critical nexus between different policy strategies for energy transition, ending deforestation, and industrial and economic development. Indonesia is a major emerging economy and a large greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting country in the global context. It is also a major coal producer and the world’s largest coal exporter and relies heavily on fossil fuels in its energy system. 1 While the country’s leadership has continued to show strong political will for enhanced climate action, progress has been limited due to various institutional and infrastructure barriers. Despite abundant solar resources, Indonesia falls far behind in renewable deployment compared to other Southeast Asian countries. 2 The declining trend of forest loss since 2016 was reversed in 2023 by 58% due to an uptick in land conversion for agriculture, in particular oil palm. 3 Policy attention to methane (CH4) and other non-CO2 gases is largely missing, with high data uncertainty and little understanding of the importance, potential opportunities, large co-benefits, and …
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Regional impacts of energy technologies’ cost of capital on decarbonisation
2025
Alexandros Nikas, Natasha Frilingou, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Russell Horowit…
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Authors:Alexandros Nikas, Natasha Frilingou, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Thomas Nikolakakis, Anastasios Karamaneas, Kimon Georgiou, Konstantinos Koasidis, Shivika Mittal, Charalampos Platias, Conall Heussaff, Christoph Bertram
Publication date:07/10/2025
Description:Energy-sector decarbonisation, which is a prerequisite to tackling climate change, entails major low-carbon technology investments across the globe. However, currently only a fraction of those investments is directed towards emerging and developing economies, partly due to large disparities in financing conditions and perceived investment risks. Modelling exercises underpinning decarbonisation strategies typically do not consider how costs of capital may evolve across regions and technologies, which can have a strong impact on resulting policy insights. We explore the impacts of various plausible, expert-informed, long-term trends of (de-) risking investments in clean energy versus fossil-fuel technologies on decarbonisation pathways on top of an empirical dataset of costs of capital, differentiated by technology and country. We also assess the effects of a ‘corrective justice’policy of risk underwriting for low-carbon investments, whereby corporate windfall profits are taxed, and the revenues redistributed as subsidies towards higher-risk regions. Results indicate considerable mitigation and investment potential in better informed planning with plausible longterm cost-of-capital projections, which could contribute towards bridging the emissions gap between efforts reflecting the ambition embedded in Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term climate targets, as well as possible underestimation of the risk entailed in bioenergy-based negative emissions technologies in mitigation scenarios for developed nations.
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Multilevel emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China’s net-zero transition
2025
Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pie…
Joule 9 (6)
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Authors:Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Robin Hasse, Michaja Pehl, Simon Moreno-Leiva, Jakob Duerrwaechter, Jarusch Muesse, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:06/18/2025
Journal:Joule
Volume:9
Issue:6
Publisher:Elsevier
Description:Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying end-use sectors. However, concerns exist that electrification may increase emissions while coal power dominates. Using a global climate model, we explore electrification scenarios with varying coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China's sectors. A 10-year delay in coal phase-out could increase global peak temperature by about 0.02°C. However, on a sectoral level, there is no evidence of significant additional emissions from electrification, even with a slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential "order of abatement" view, showing electrification can start before the power sector is fully decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity drops below 150 gCO2/kWh by 2040, electrification can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, steel, and transport services, and along …
Cited by:14
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REMIND-REgional Model of INvestments and Development (3.5. 0)
2025
Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, R…
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert C Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Cornelia Auer, David Bantje, Felicitas Beier, Falk Benke, Stephen Bi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Tabea Dorndorf, Jakob Dürrwächter, Sophie Fuchs, Pascal Führlich, Anastasis Giannousakis, Chen Chris Gong, Alex Hagen, Markus Haller, Robin Hasse, Léa Hayez, Jérôme Hilaire, Verena Hofbauer, Johanna Hoppe, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Alexander Körner, Katarzyna Anna Kowalczyk, Elmar Kriegler, Fabrice Lécuyer, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Lorenz, Sylvie Ludig, Michael Lüken, Aman Malik, Rahel Mandaroux, Susanne Manger, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Simón Moreno-Leiva, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Jarusch Müßel, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Mika Pflüger, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Niklas Roming, Ricarda Rosemann, Marianna Rottoli, Tonn Rüter, Robert Salzwedel, Pascal Sauer, Eva Schmidt, Christof Schötz, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Joanna Sitarz, Björn Sörgel, Falko Ueckerdt, Philipp Verpoort, Pascal Weigmann, Bennet Weiss
Publication date:04/04/2025
Publisher:CERN/Zenodo
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Evaluating a High Ambition Pathway for Decarbonization in the Republic of Korea
2025
Jenna Behrendt, Maria Borrero, Mel George, Christoph Bertram, Audrey Rader, Dmitry Chur…
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland
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Authors:Jenna Behrendt, Maria Borrero, Mel George, Christoph Bertram, Audrey Rader, Dmitry Churlyaev, Alexandra Kreis, Jiehong Lou, Nate Hultman, Ryna Cui, R Cui
Publication date:04/01/2025
Journal:Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland
Description:Korea’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF), peaked in 2018 and declined by 12% in 2023 from the peak level, mostly driven by reduced coal consumption in power generation. 1, 2 A large share of emissions still comes from electricity, which comprises 38% of total GHG emissions in 2022, followed by industry (18%) and transport (16%). 3 Emissions from LULUCF in South Korea are small, only comprising around 1% of total GHG emissions. 4 South Korea’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target commits to a 40% reduction in total GHG emissions from 2018 to 2030, with 13% of total emissions reduction to be achieved through international offsets, and aims to reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. 5 These targets cover all GHG emissions from all sectors, although the 2018 base year excludes LULUCF emissions. As South Korea develops its next NDC target for 2035, it is important to understand the current progress toward its near-and long-term climate goals and identify opportunities for enhanced action across all sectors of the economy. While overall emissions have been declining, continuing the current reduction rate between 2018 and 2022 is insufficient to meet the 2030 NDC target. Achieving the 2030 target without offsets would require doubling the average annual reduction rate since emissions peaked, from 2% per year between 2018 and 2022 to 4% per year for 2023-2030. From the 2030 NDC to the 2050 net-zero goal, emissions reduction efforts need to be maintained and accelerated.
Cited by:1
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Cost of capital evolution effects on regional mitigation pathways: Financing renewable investments in low-and middle-income countries
2025
Natasha Frilingou, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-B…
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Authors:Natasha Frilingou, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Thomas Nikolakakis, Anastasios Karamaneas, Georgiou Kimon, Konstantinos Koasidis, Shivika Mittal, Charalampos Platias, Conall Heussaff, Christoph Bertram, Alexandros Nikas
Publication date:03/20/2025
Publisher:< bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: EU Open Research: Medical and health sciences>>
Description:This policy brief is part of the theme Global Effects, which considers trade and macroeconomic issues and their effects on European decarbonisation. During the workshop conducted under this theme, we sought feedback on the scenario design, inputs, and projections of two proposed modelling studies. Following an in-depth discussion on uncertainty factors and how these may play out, the 20 participating stakeholders—among others from DG Trade, DG ECFIN, the European Central Bank, and the National Bank of Belgium—were asked to also fill out a survey on how perceived costs may evolve for different technologies and countries around the world. The study presented here looked at how regionally and technologically differentiated cost of capital projections could affect decarbonisation pathways in Europe and around the world.
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Sensitivity of future regional and global energy markets and macroeconomic activity to a hypothetical global energy market disruption
2025
James Edmonds, Xin Zhao, Pralit Patel, Di Sheng, Ellie Lochner, Christoph Bertram, Goku…
iScience 28 (1)
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Authors:James Edmonds, Xin Zhao, Pralit Patel, Di Sheng, Ellie Lochner, Christoph Bertram, Gokul Iyer, Michael Westphal, Allen Fawcett, Stephanie Waldhoff
Publication date:01/17/2025
Journal:iScience
Volume:28
Issue:1
Publisher:Elsevier
Description:In this paper we contribute to a long history of research studying interactions between energy systems, international energy trade, and macroeconomic activity. We develop and employ methods to quantify transmission pathways for energy markets to affect the macroeconomy and CO2 emissions. We track the long-term consequences of a hypothetical permanent disruption to global energy markets, cession of Russian fossil fuel exports, for energy markets, regional and global economic activity (gross domestic product [GDP]), labor and capital markets, and CO2 emissions against two dramatically different reference scenarios. Relative to our first reference scenario, we find that fossil fuel exports contribute roughly one-half-trillion dollars/year to Russian GDP in 2050. We find that by 2050 global GDP is largely unaffected by the loss of Russian fossil fuel exports with all the benefits accruing to non-Russian energy …
Cited by:5
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Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints (AUG, 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4, 2024)
2025
Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, La…
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 15 (1), 119-119
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Ryna Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nate Hultman, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux, Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:01/01/2025
Journal:NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Volume:15
Issue:1
Pages:119-119
Publisher:NATURE PORTFOLIO
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REMIND-REgional Model of INvestments and Development (v3. 3.0)
2024
Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, R…
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert C Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gabriel Medeiros Abrahao, Cornelia Auer, Falk Benke, Stephen Bi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Sophie Fuchs, Pascal Führlich, Anastasis Giannousakis, Chen Chris Gong, Markus Haller, Robin Hasse, Jérôme Hilaire, Johanna Hoppe, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Alexander Körner, Katarzyna Anna Kowalczyk, Elmar Kriegler, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Lorenz, Sylvie Ludig, Michael Lüken, Aman Malik, Rahel Mandaroux, Susanne Manger, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Simón Moreno-Leiva, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Mika Pflüger, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Niklas Roming, Marianna Rottoli, Eva Schmidt, Christof Schötz, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Björn Sörgel, Falko Ueckerdt, Philipp Verpoort, Pascal Weigmann
Publication date:12/27/2024
Publisher:< bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung>>
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REMIND-REgional Model of INvestments and Development (3.4. 0)
2024
Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, R…
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert C Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Cornelia Auer, Falk Benke, Stephen Bi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Jakob Dürrwächter, Sophie Fuchs, Pascal Sauer, Anastasis Giannousakis, Chen Chris Gong, Markus Haller, Robin Hasse, Jérôme Hilaire, Johanna Hoppe, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Alexander Körner, Katarzyna Anna Kowalczyk, Elmar Kriegler, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Lorenz, Sylvie Ludig, Michael Lüken, Aman Malik, Rahel Mandaroux, Susanne Manger, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Simón Moreno-Leiva, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Mika Pflüger, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Niklas Roming, Marianna Rottoli, Tonn Rüter, Eva Schmidt, Christof Schötz, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Björn Sörgel, Falko Ueckerdt, Philipp Verpoort, Pascal Weigmann
Publication date:12/01/2024
Publisher:CERN/Zenodo
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S-curves or Straight Lines: Critical Examination of Appropriateness of Linear Trajectories for Country Mitigation Pathways in Light of Equity, Feasibility, and Uncertainty
2024
Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Andy Miller, Yiyun Ryna Cui
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2024, GC24C-03
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Andy Miller, Yiyun Ryna Cui
Publication date:12/01/2024
Journal:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
Volume:2024
Pages:GC24C-03
Description:Equity and fairness are key criteria that all countries need to consider in the formulation of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Modeling scenarios provide one important tool to inform feasible strategies for near-and medium-term mitigation pathways. Often, they employ simple heuristics like linear trajectories towards stated net-zero targets in 2050-2070. We here provide a critical assessment of the way that linear trajectories can be misleading in different ways for both countries with large historical and now declining emissions, and for those with historically low, and now still increasing emissions. We analyze existing regional scenarios with assumptions of either linear reduction trajectories, or endogenous trajectories emerging from cost minimization and show that the latter imply strongly convex reductions pathways, and show how this naturally follows from the fact that marginal abatement cost curves …
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Complementary global temperature effects of methane and carbon dioxide abatement
2024
Steven Smith, Christoph Bertram, Jenna Behrendt, Shannon Kennedy, Yiyun Ryna Cui, Natha…
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2024 (112), GC21S-0112
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Authors:Steven Smith, Christoph Bertram, Jenna Behrendt, Shannon Kennedy, Yiyun Ryna Cui, Nathan Hultman, Haewon C McJeon
Publication date:12/01/2024
Journal:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
Volume:2024
Issue:112
Pages:GC21S-0112
Description:Emissions of the two most important greenhouse gasses (GHGs), carbon dioxide (CO 2) and methane (CH 4), have continued to increase over the past decade. Mitigation scenarios unambiguously show that for achieving the ambitious climate mitigation target of the Paris Agreement, immediate and rapid reductions of these and other greenhouse gas emissions are needed. The different atmospheric lifetimes of CO 2 and CH 4 (and the relationship with co-emitted sulfur dioxide (SO 2)) imply different impacts on short-to long-term warming.
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NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set
2024
Oliver Richters, Elmar Kriegler, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Christoph Bertram, David N Bresch,…
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Authors:Oliver Richters, Elmar Kriegler, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Christoph Bertram, David N Bresch, Ryna Cui, Jae Edmonds, Philip Hackstock, Ian Hurst, Jarmo Kikstra, David Klein, Maximilian Kotz, Chahan M Kropf, Jared Lewis, Iana Liadze, Rahel Mandaroux, Malte Meinshausen, Jihoon Min, Zebedee Nicholls, Franziska Piontek, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, Inga Sauer, Fabio Sferra, Miodrag Stevanović, Bas van Ruijven, Pascal Weigmann, Michael Westphal Ian, Alicia Zhao, Matthew Zwerling, Allen Fawcett, Jay Fuhrman, Mel George, Yiyi Ju, Leonie Wenz, Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Lavinia Baumstark, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Siddarth Durga, Oliver Fricko, Robin Hasse, Johanna Hoppe, Florian Humpenöder, Iyer Gokul, Aneeque Javaid, Siddharth Joshi, Paul Kishimoto, Johannes Koch, Volker Krey, Ellie Lochner, Gunnar Luderer, Florian Maczek, Alessio Mastrucci, Measenray Meng, Anne Merfort, Pralit Patel, Michaja Pehl, Setu Pelz, Xin Zhao, Patrick José von Jeetze, Gamze Ünlü, Felix Schreyer, Tonn Rüter
Publication date:11/01/2024
Publisher:CERN/Zenodo
Description:This Scenario Explorer is a web-based user interface for NGFS Scenarios. This provides intuitive visualizations & display of time series data and download of the data in multiple formats.
Cited by:27
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Core Model Proposal# 399: Updating the SSP Database (v3. 0)(Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)
2024
Xin Zhao, Pralit L Patel, Di Sheng, James A Edmonds, Stephanie T Waldhoff, Allen A Fawc…
(PNNL-36828)
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Authors:Xin Zhao, Pralit L Patel, Di Sheng, James A Edmonds, Stephanie T Waldhoff, Allen A Fawcett, Christoph J Bertram, Brian O'Neill
Publication date:10/31/2024
Issue:PNNL-36828
Publisher:Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Description:Purpose: This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3. 0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (eg, multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.
Cited by:1
Resources:[PDF] from github.io
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Promising climate progress: How close do net-zero ambitions take us towards the Paris Agreement goals?
2024
Isabela S Tagomori, Fabio Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Da…
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Authors:Isabela S Tagomori, Fabio Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Elena Hooijschuur, Gokul Iyer, Jarmo Kikstra, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Yang Ou, Lara Aleluia Reis, Oliver Richters, Pedro Rochedo, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Matthew Zwerling, Bastiaan van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren
Publication date:10/16/2024
Description:The Paris Agreement aims to limit the increase of global mean temperature to well-below 2 C and preferably 1.5 C. This study provides a multi-model analysis of global projections of current policies and pledges, and climate pathways to implement the Paris Agreement’s overall goals. In this exercise, current policies and NDCs scenarios are updated. Additionally, three main scenarios are analysed: i) a long-term strategies (LTS) scenario, which assumes the full implementation of the NDCs and the announced net-zero pledges from COP26 (in Glasgow, 2021); ii) an Expanded LTS scenario, which expands the net-zero pledges to all countries/regions; and iii) an Accelerated LTS scenario, which sees climate targets being brought forward by 5–10 years. Our findings indicate that the current netzero pledges bring the world close to a well-below 2 C pathway, but a gap remains. Increasing ambition proves crucial to dealing with the climate challenge: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris goals (1.5 to 2.0 C range in model mean, 50th percentile). However, reaching the 1.5 C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely, and dedicated policies are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity.
Cited by:1
Resources:[PDF] from researchsquare.com
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Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints
2024
Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, La…
Nature Climate Change 14 (9), 954-960
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Ryna Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nate Hultman, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux, Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:09/01/2024
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:14
Issue:9
Pages:954-960
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group UK
Description:Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited …
Cited by:76
Resources:[HTML] from nature.com
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Transforming human systems to safeguard the Global Commons: A report by PIK and CGC
2024
Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Dorothee Keppler, Simon Moreno Leiva, Isabelle Weindl, Jessic…
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Authors:Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Dorothee Keppler, Simon Moreno Leiva, Isabelle Weindl, Jessica Strefler, Björn Sörgel, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Michael Crawford, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Robin Hasse, Jens Heinke, Florian Humpenöder, David Klein, Gunnar Luderer, Christoph Müller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Alexander Popp, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Elmar Kriegler, Johan Rockström, Naoko Ishii
Publication date:03/01/2024
Publisher:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Center for Global Commons
Description:There are increasing signs that the Global Commons, the biophysical systems that as a whole keep
Cited by:2
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Transforming human systems to safeguard the Global Commons
2024
Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Dorothee Keppler, Simon Moreno Leiva, Isabelle Weindl, Jessic…
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Authors:Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Dorothee Keppler, Simon Moreno Leiva, Isabelle Weindl, Jessica Strefler, Björn Sörgel, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Michael Crawford, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Robin Hasse, Jens Heinke, Florian Humpenöder, David Klein, Gunnar Luderer, Christoph Müller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Alexander Popp, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Elmar Kriegler, Johan Rockström, Naoko Ishii
Publication date:03/01/2024
Publisher:Center for Global Commons
Description:There are increasing signs that the Global Commons, the biophysical systems that as a whole keep
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mrremind: MadRat REMIND Input Data Package
2024
Lavinia Baumstark, Renato Rodrigues, Antoine Levesque, Julian Oeser, Christoph Bertram,…
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Authors:Lavinia Baumstark, Renato Rodrigues, Antoine Levesque, Julian Oeser, Christoph Bertram, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Aman Malik, Felix Schreyer, Björn Sörgel, Marianna Rottoli, Abhijeet Mishra, Alois Dirnaichner, Michaja Pehl, Anastasis Giannousakis, David Klein, Jessica Strefler, Lukas Feldhaus, Regina Brecha, Sebastian Rauner, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Stephen Bi, Falk Benke, Pascal Weigmann, Oliver Richters, Robin Hasse, Sophie Fuchs, Rahel Mandaroux
Publication date:01/01/2024
Publisher:CERN/Zenodo
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The scenario-based equity price impact induced by greenhouse gas emissions
2024
Mark A Weth, Markus Baltzer, Christoph Bertram, Jérôme Hilaire, Craig Johnston
(30/2024)
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Authors:Mark A Weth, Markus Baltzer, Christoph Bertram, Jérôme Hilaire, Craig Johnston
Publication date:01/01/2024
Issue:30/2024
Publisher:Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper
Description:This paper proposes a forward-looking metric of transition risk that relates financial performance and incremental carbon costs at the firm level. To this end, we use a consistent dividend discount framework augmented with emission costs of firms and climate scenario projections from four large-scale integrated assessment models. Assuming a revision of market expectations from a baseline scenario to a net zero transition, we derive equity price impacts for 5,050 non-financial stock corporations covering half of global equity market capitalization and 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest considerable disparities in firms' capacities to bear the scenario-implied costs of direct emissions. While especially fossil fuel energy firms and large emitters are exposed to potentially high devaluations and stranding, the majority of capitalization under review is exposed to moderate losses in a single-digit percentage range. We present the bandwidth of results across IAMs under alternative baseline scenarios and cost pass-through assumptions.
Resources:[PDF] from econstor.eu
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Suggested citation
2023
Ryna Cui, Jenna Behrendt, Andy Miller, Matt Zwerling, Christoph Bertram, Mel George, Sh…
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Authors:Ryna Cui, Jenna Behrendt, Andy Miller, Matt Zwerling, Christoph Bertram, Mel George, Shannon Kennedy, Michael I Westphal, Maria Borrero, Alexandra Kreis, Dillon Walton, Alicia Zhao, Aldana Joel Canton, Shiqi Chen, Gokul Iyer, Kathleen Kennedy, Zarrar Khan, Yingtong Li, Jiehong Lou, Haewon McJeon, Kowan O’Keefe, Mengye Zhu, Nate Hultman
Publication date:11/01/2023
Description:An “all-of-society” climate strategy that fuses national with subnational and all-ofsociety action can keep global climate goals—including 1.5 C—within reach.
Resources:[PDF] from umd.edu
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Feasible futures
2023
C Bertram, E Brutschin, K Riahi, B van Ruijven, S Battersby
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Authors:C Bertram, E Brutschin, K Riahi, B van Ruijven, S Battersby
Publication date:10/02/2023
Publisher:PB-41
Description:Embracing the notion of feasibility, this research shows that the world will probably overshoot 1.5°C, largely owing to low institutional capacity. Energy demand reduction and electrification are two options to turn down the heat, and addressing weak institutions is crucial. In the past, climate scenarios have focused on how to curb warming for the lowest economic cost. But cost is only one factor in the overall feasibility of climate mitigation. New research accounts for other dimensions of feasibility, encompassing technology, natural resources, and the capacity of governments to implement mitigation.
Resources:[PDF] from iiasa.ac.at
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ENGAGE Summary for Policymakers
2023
B van Ruijven, J Jäger, K Riahi, S Battersby, C Bertram, V Bosetti, E Brutschin, E Byer…
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Authors:B van Ruijven, J Jäger, K Riahi, S Battersby, C Bertram, V Bosetti, E Brutschin, E Byers, A Cherp, L Drouet, S Fujimori, V Krey, R Schaeffer, I Schmidt Tagomori, D van Vuuren, Z Vrontisi, ENGAGE Consortium
Publication date:10/02/2023
Description:As the world faces the risks of dangerous climate change, policymakers, industry and civil society leaders are counting on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform and guide strategies to deliver on the objectives of the Paris Agreement (PA) and subsequent agreements. The Exploring National and Global Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions (ENGAGE) project has responded to this challenge by engaging these stakeholders in co-producing a new generation of global and national decarbonization pathways.
Cited by:4
Resources:[PDF] from iiasa.ac.at
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Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals (Chapter 3)
2023
Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Jacobo Arango, Katherine Calvin, Céline Guivarch, Tomo…
IPCC 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working G…
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Authors:Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Jacobo Arango, Katherine Calvin, Céline Guivarch, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kejun Jiang, Elmar Kriegler, Robert Matthews, Glen P Peters, Anand Rao, Simon Robertson, Adam Mohammed Sebbit, Julia Steinberger, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P van Vuuren
Publication date:09/22/2023
Journal:IPCC 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Pages:295-408
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
Description:Chapter 3 assesses the emissions pathways literature in order to identify their key characteristics (both in commonalities and differences) and to understand how societal choices may steer the system into a particular direction (high confidence). More than 2000 quantitative emissions pathways were submitted to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report AR6 scenarios database, out of which 1202 scenarios included sufficient information for assessing the associated warming consistent with WGI.
Cited by:542
Resources:[PDF] from iiasa.ac.at
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Response to comment on “Fairness considerations in global mitigation investments”
2023
Shonali Pachauri, Setu Pelz, Christoph Bertram, Narasimha D Rao, Keywan Riahi
Science 380 (6646), eadh1463
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Authors:Shonali Pachauri, Setu Pelz, Christoph Bertram, Narasimha D Rao, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:05/19/2023
Journal:Science
Volume:380
Issue:6646
Pages:eadh1463
Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science
Description:We welcome the analysis of Semieniuk et al. as an additional sensitivity to illustrate a more extreme distribution of regional contributions to climate mitigation investments that supports our main conclusion regarding the North‐South divide in mitigation investment capabilities. In response to Semieniuk et al. we would like to first point out that, in defining the required global mitigation investments for the 2020 to 2030 period, our study relies on the estimates in the sixth assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WGIII . These are based on diverse sources and underlying models that to varying degrees reflect regional differences in technology costs and consider both purchasing power parity (PPP) and market exchange rates (MERs). We use these IPCC estimates as a starting point and focus entirely on the question of how much of the needed regional investments, given …
Resources:[HTML] from science.org
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The Double Dividend of International Cooperation for Climate Mitigation Cost Effectiveness and Public Health Cobenefits
2023
Huan Wang, Wenying Chen, Sebastian Rauner, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kri…
Environmental Science & Technology 57 (10), 4061-4070
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Authors:Huan Wang, Wenying Chen, Sebastian Rauner, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:03/02/2023
Journal:Environmental Science & Technology
Volume:57
Issue:10
Pages:4061-4070
Publisher:American Chemical Society
Description:Current National Determined Contributions require strengthening to achieve the 2-degree target set in the Paris Agreement. Here, we contrast two mitigation effort strengthening ideas: the “burden-sharing” principle, which requires each region to meet the mitigation goal through domestic mitigation with no international cooperation, and the cooperation focused “cost effective conditional-enhancing” principle, which combines domestic mitigation with carbon trading and low-carbon investment transfer. By applying a burden-sharing model covering several equity principles, we analyze the 2030 mitigation burden for each region, then the energy system model generates the results for the carbon trade and the investment transfer for the conditional-enhancing plan, and an air pollution cobenefit model is used to analyze the cobenefit on air quality and public health. Here, we show that the conditional-enhancing plan …
Cited by:15
Resources:[HTML] from acs.org
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ENGAGE post-Glasgow long-term strategies
2023
I Schmidt Tagomori, I Dafnomilis, O Fricko, O Richters, C Bertram, L Drouet, L Aleluia,…
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Authors:I Schmidt Tagomori, I Dafnomilis, O Fricko, O Richters, C Bertram, L Drouet, L Aleluia, F Fosse, Z Vrontisi, D Fragkiadakis
Publication date:01/01/2023
Publisher:Zenodo
Description:This set of scenarios integrates global pathways into a coherent set of low-carbon mid-century strategies, assessing current policies, NDCs and national mid-century strategies and their consistency with global pathways to 1.5/2°C warming levels and identifying the most effective policies in different countries and sectors.
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Fairness considerations in global mitigation investments
2022
Shonali Pachauri, Setu Pelz, Christoph Bertram, Silvie Kreibiehl, Narasimha D Rao, Youb…
Science 378 (6624), 1057-1059
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Authors:Shonali Pachauri, Setu Pelz, Christoph Bertram, Silvie Kreibiehl, Narasimha D Rao, Youba Sokona, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:12/09/2022
Journal:Science
Volume:378
Issue:6624
Pages:1057-1059
Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science
Description:Despite overwhelming evidence that the world needs to make rapid and substantial investments in climate mitigation in this decade to meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement (–), political and financial barriers continue to hinder mitigation efforts . Global mitigation investment pathways modeled in the sixth assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reach global climate goals in a cost-effective manner. These are agnostic about who should finance these and how to fairly allocate costs and benefits of mitigation efforts. We apply equity considerations to global cost-effective mitigation investment needs and derive “fair-share” regional contributions, which describe the direction and magnitude of interregional financial flows that align with each consideration. We find that flows from North America and Europe to other regions would have to increase substantially relative to …
Cited by:74
Resources:[PDF] from pik-potsdam.de
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Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
2022
Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacqu…
Nature Communications 13 (1), 1
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Authors:Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P van Vuuren
Publication date:12/01/2022
Journal:Nature Communications
Volume:13
Issue:1
Pages:1
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap - PMC Skip to main content Here's how you know Official websites use .gov A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A lock ( Locked padlock icon ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. NCBI home page Search Log in Dashboard Publications Account settings Log out Search… Search NCBI Primary site navigation Close Search Search Logged in as: Dashboard Publications Account settings Log in Search PMC Full-Text Archive Search in PMC Search Journal List User Guide Open resources icon View on publisher site icon PERMALINK Copy As a library, NLM provides access to scientific literature. Inclusion in an NLM database does not imply …
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NGFS Climate Scenarios Database: Technical Documentation V3. 1
2022
Oliver Richters, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Jacob Anz, Thessa Beck, David N Bre…
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Authors:Oliver Richters, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Jacob Anz, Thessa Beck, David N Bresch, Molly Charles, Leon Clarke, Ryna Cui, Jae Edmonds, Philip Hackstock, Jérôme Hilaire, Dawn Holland, Ian Hurst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Jarmo Kikstra, Chahan Kropf, Quentin Lejeune, Jared Lewis, Iana Liadze, Malte Meinshausen, Jihoon Min, Zebedee Nicholls, Peter Pfleiderer, Franziska Piontek, Joeri Rogelj, Inga Sauer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jessie Ruth Schleypen, Niklas Schwind, Fabio Sferra, Bas van Ruijven, Pascal Weigmann, Sha Yu, Alicia Zhao, Anne Zimmer, Matthew Zwerling
Publication date:11/01/2022
Description:This document provides technical information on the two datasets behind the NGFS scenarios. It is intended to
Cited by:56
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Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated
2022
Jasmine Livingston, Thomas Hickmann, Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin
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Authors:Jasmine Livingston, Thomas Hickmann, Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin
Publication date:09/21/2022
Publisher:in Politics and Governance
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Exploring global climate policy futures and their representation in integrated assessment models
2022
Thomas Hickmann, Christoph Bertram, Frank Biermann, Elina Brutschin, Elmar Kriegler, Ja…
Politics and Governance 10 (3), 171-185
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Authors:Thomas Hickmann, Christoph Bertram, Frank Biermann, Elina Brutschin, Elmar Kriegler, Jasmine E Livingston, Silvia Pianta, Keywan Riahi, Bas Van Ruijven, Detlef Van Vuuren
Publication date:09/21/2022
Journal:Politics and Governance
Volume:10
Issue:3
Pages:171-185
Description:The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 C or 2 C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.
Cited by:22
Resources:[PDF] from uu.nl
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REMIND-REgional Model of INvestments and Development
2022
Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robe…
Zenodo
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gabriel Abrahão, Cornelia Auer, David Bantje, Felicitas Beier, Falk Benke, Stephen Bi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Tabea Dorndorf, Jakob Duerrwaechter, Sophie Fuchs, Pascal Führlich, Anastasis Giannousakis, Chen Chris Gong, Alex Hagen, Markus Haller, Robin Hasse, Léa Hayez, Jerome Hilaire, Verena Hofbauer, Johanna Hoppe, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Alexander Körner, Katarzyna Kowalczyk, Elmar Kriegler, Fabrice Lécuyer, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Lorenz, Sylvie Ludig, Michael Lüken, Aman Malik, Rahel Mandaroux, Susanne Manger, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Simón Moreno-Leiva, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Jarusch Müßel, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Mika Pflüger, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Niklas Roming, Ricarda Rosemann, Marianna Rottoli, Tonn Rüter, Robert Salzwedel, Pascal Sauer, Eva Schmidt, Christof Schötz, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Joanna Sitarz, Björn Sörgel, Falko Ueckerdt, Philipp Verpoort, Pascal Weigmann, Bennet Weiss
Publication date:07/01/2022
Journal:Zenodo
Description:REMIND (REgional Model of Investment and Development) is a numerical open source model that represents the future evolution of the world economies with a special focus on the development of the energy sector and the implications for our world climate. The goal of REMIND is to find the optimal mix of investments in the economy and the energy sectors of each model region given a set of population, technology, policy and climate constraints. It also accounts for regional trade characteristics on goods, energy fuels, and emissions allowances. All greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities are represented in the model.
Cited by:53
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REMIND-REgional Model of INvestments and Development (3.0. 0)
2022
Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, R…
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nicolas Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert C Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Cornelia Auer, Falk Benke, Stephen Bi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Chen Chris Gong, Markus Haller, Robin Hasse, Jérôme Hilaire, Johanna Hoppe, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Alexander Körner, Katarzyna Anna Kowalczyk, Elmar Kriegler, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Lorenz, Sylvie Ludig, Michael Lüken, Aman Malik, Susanne Manger, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Simón Moreno-Leiva, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Niklas Roming, Marianna Rottoli, Eva Schmidt, Christof Schötz, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Björn Sörgel, Falko Ueckerdt, Philipp Verpoort, Pascal Weigmann
Publication date:07/01/2022
Publisher:CERN/Zenodo
Description:REMIND - REgional Model of INvestments and Development (3.0.0) :: PIKpublic Deutsch Datenschutzhinweis Impressum Volltexte einbeziehen DetailsucheBrowse START ABLAGE (0)Werkzeuge Datensatz DATENSATZ AKTIONENEXPORT Zur Ablage hinzufügen Lokale TagsFreigabegeschichteDetailsÜbersicht Freigegeben Software REMIND - REgional Model of INvestments and Development (3.0.0) Urheber*innen /persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer Luderer, Gunnar Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; /persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer Bauer, Nicolas Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; /persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark Baumstark, Lavinia Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; /persons/resource/Bertram Bertram, Christoph Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; /persons/resource/marian.leimbach Leimbach, Marian Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; /…
Cited by:9
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Running the NGFS Scenarios in G-Cubed: A Tale of Two Modelling Frameworks
2022
Christoph Bertram, Antoine Boirard, Jae Edmonds, Roshen Fernando, David Gayle, Ian Hurs…
NGFS Occasional Paper, 9-125
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Antoine Boirard, Jae Edmonds, Roshen Fernando, David Gayle, Ian Hurst, Larry Weifeng Liu, Warwick McKibbin, Clément Payerols, Oliver Richters, Edo Schets
Publication date:06/17/2022
Journal:NGFS Occasional Paper
Pages:9-125
Description:The NGFS Workstream on “Macrofinancial” commissioned a pilot project in 2021 to explore the feasibility of integrating the G-Cubed general equilibrium model into the NGFS suite of models. At the time this project was completed, the workstream on macrofinancial was chaired by Sarah Breeden, Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy and Risk at the Bank of England.
Cited by:1
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The wide range of possible aviation demand futures after the COVID-19 pandemic
2022
Sebastian Franz, Marianna Rottoli, Christoph Bertram
Environmental Research Letters 17 (6), 064009
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Authors:Sebastian Franz, Marianna Rottoli, Christoph Bertram
Publication date:05/17/2022
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:17
Issue:6
Pages:064009
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Aviation has been identified as one of the crucial hard-to-abate sectors, as long-range aviation in particular will continue to depend on liquid fuels for the foreseeable future. The sector was also one of the fastest growing emitters of fossil CO2 emissions until 2019 but experienced sharply reduced demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, making future demand outlooks more uncertain. While past studies have looked at the variation in future aviation demands due to variations in demographics, income levels, and pricing policies, an exploration of potentially more sustainable demand futures does not yet exist. Here we use an open-source model with a detailed representation of country-level aviation demand per international/domestic and business/leisure segments to analyze a range of scenarios based on a consistent and comprehensive interpretation of the qualitative narratives related to behavioural aspects as …
Cited by:25
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Policy options for tackling multiple crises simultaneously
2022
Bjoern Soergel, Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram, Michael Crawford, Laura Delsa, Max F…
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Authors:Bjoern Soergel, Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram, Michael Crawford, Laura Delsa, Max Franks, Florian Humpenöder, Debbora Leip, Kai Lessmann, Alexander Popp, Nicolas Taconet, Isabelle Weindl, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:05/01/2022
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Author Correction: Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
2022
Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert Piet…
Nature Energy 7 (4), 380-381
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert Pietzcker, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Alois Dirnaichner, Florian Humpenöder, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Popp, Renato Rodrigues, Jessica Strefler, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:04/01/2022
Journal:Nature Energy
Volume:7
Issue:4
Pages:380-381
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:In the version of this article initially published, there was an error in the symbol key to Fig. 1c and Extended Data Fig. 1. The labels corresponding to green diamonds and circles, and purple diamonds and circles, were in error and have been reordered top-down to appear as “1.5 C-Conv,”“1.5 C-Elec,”“WB2C-Conv” and “WB2C-Elec”, respectively. The changes have been made to the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
Cited by:12
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Solar energy as an early just transition opportunity for coal-bearing states in India
2022
Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram
Environmental Research Letters 17 (3), 034011
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Authors:Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram
Publication date:02/23/2022
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:17
Issue:3
Pages:034011
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Continued investment in coal embroils regions in coal lock-ins, creating dependence and vested interests around coal and thereby limiting the speed and potential to switch to cleaner energy. In India, four states contribute 70% of coal production, with regions surrounding mines also housing significant operating and under-construction coal power stations. On the other hand, states in the west and south of India dominate current and near-term renewable energy capacity growth, broadly following patterns of highest resource potentials. We show that following current policies, by the end of the decade, coal-bearing states will likely sink deeper into carbon lock-ins, while the rest of the country, especially western and southern states could become increasingly decarbonised. Even in decarbonisation scenarios, gains from job and value creation in the clean energy sector might primarily take place away from existing …
Cited by:37
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Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap (vol 12, 6419, 2021)
2022
Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacqu…
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 13 (1)
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Authors:Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Despres, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Koberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P van Vuuren
Publication date:01/10/2022
Journal:NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume:13
Issue:1
Publisher:NATURE PORTFOLIO
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Investment and finance
2022
S Kreibiehl, T Yong Jung, S Battiston, PE Carvajal, C Clapp, D Dasgupta, N Dube, R Jach…
Climate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group III Contribution to th…
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Authors:S Kreibiehl, T Yong Jung, S Battiston, PE Carvajal, C Clapp, D Dasgupta, N Dube, R Jachnik, K Morita, N Samargandi, M Williams
Publication date:01/01/2022
Journal:Climate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Pages:1547 - 1640
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
Cited by:114
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Joint implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals, climate change mitigation and biosphere protection: Policy options for tackling multiple crises simultaneously
2022
Björn Sörgel, Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram, Michael Crawford, Laura Delsa, R Maxim…
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Authors:Björn Sörgel, Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram, Michael Crawford, Laura Delsa, R Maximilian Franks, Florian Humpenöder, Debbora Leip, Kai Lessmann, Alexander Popp, Nicolas Taconet, Isabelle Weindl, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:01/01/2022
Publisher:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Description:Humanity faces the enormous challenge of ensuring a decent living for all global citizens while simultaneously averting dangerous climate change and biodiversity loss. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Paris Agreement and the prospective Global Biodiversity Framework set ambitious targets, but reviewing the current situation and the progress towards these targets is sobering: A continuation of current policy ambition and implementation speed will fail to deliver on these international agreements, leaving many people in poverty and hunger by 2030 and beyond, while at the same time the planet continues to heat up and biodiversity loss proceeds. Against this background, this report discusses the interdependencies and especially the mutual benefits of jointly implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), ambitious climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection. Progress towards the SDGs, such as encouraging healthy nutrition, energy efficiency and more sustainable lifestyles, eradicating poverty and reducing inequality, improving institutional quality and promoting better education and gender equality, plays an important role as an enabling factor for climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection. Vice versa, averting dangerous climate change and protecting ecosystems is indispensable for the whole SDG agenda, not least because of the risk of climate impacts and biodiversity loss jeopardizing many other SDGs.
Cited by:4
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Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
2022
Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert Piet…
Nature Energy 7 (1), 32-42
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert Pietzcker, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Alois Dirnaichner, Florian Humpenöder, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Popp, Renato Rodrigues, Jessica Strefler, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:01/01/2022
Journal:Nature Energy
Volume:7
Issue:1
Pages:32-42
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental …
Cited by:681
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Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
2021
Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Valentina Bosetti, Aniq…
Nature Climate Change 11 (12), 1063-1069
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Authors:Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Valentina Bosetti, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Laurent Drouet, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Leonidas Paroussos, Roberto Schaeffer, Matthias Weitzel, Bob van der Zwaan, Zoi Vrontisi, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mykola Gusti, Florian Humpenöder, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshausen, Larissa P Nogueira, Ken Oshiro, Alexander Popp, Pedro RR Rochedo, Gamze Ünlü, Bas van Ruijven, Junya Takakura, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren, Behnam Zakeri
Publication date:12/01/2021
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:11
Issue:12
Pages:1063-1069
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an …
Cited by:309
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Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
2021
Laurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti, Simone A Padoan, Lara Aleluia Reis, Christoph Bertra…
Nature Climate Change 11 (12), 1070-1076
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Authors:Laurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti, Simone A Padoan, Lara Aleluia Reis, Christoph Bertram, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Volker Krey, Ken Oshiro, Larissa P Nogueira, Leonidas Paroussos, Franziska Piontek, Keywan Riahi, Pedro RR Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Jun’ya Takakura, Kaj-Ivar Van der Wijst, Bob van der Zwaan, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Behnam Zakeri, Massimo Tavoni
Publication date:12/01/2021
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:11
Issue:12
Pages:1070-1076
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and …
Cited by:143
Resources:[PDF] from iiasa.ac.at
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Climate policy accelerates structural changes in energy employment
2021
Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer
Energy Policy 159, 112642
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Authors:Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:12/01/2021
Journal:Energy Policy
Volume:159
Pages:112642
Publisher:Elsevier
Description:The employment implications of decarbonizing the energy sector have received far less attention than the technology dimension of the transition, although being of critical importance to policymakers. In this work, we adapt a methodology based on employment factors to project future changes in quantity and composition of direct energy supply jobs for two scenarios - (1) relatively weak emissions reductions as pledged in the nationally determined contributions (NDC) and (2) stringent reductions compatible with the 1.5 °C target. We find that in the near-term the 1.5°C-compatible scenario results in a net increase in jobs through gains in solar and wind jobs in construction, installation, and manufacturing, despite significant losses in coal fuel supply; eventually leading to a peak in total direct energy jobs in 2025. In the long run, improvements in labour productivity lead to a decrease of total direct energy employment …
Cited by:75
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Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
2021
Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Stefan Frank, Florian Humpenöder, Christoph Bertr…
Nature Sustainability 4 (12), 1052-1059
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Authors:Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Stefan Frank, Florian Humpenöder, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Mykola Gusti, Mathijs Harmsen, Kimon Keramidas, Yuki Ochi, Ken Oshiro, Pedro Rochedo, Bas van Ruijven, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Florian Fosse, Petr Havlik, Volker Krey, Alexander Popp, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:12/01/2021
Journal:Nature Sustainability
Volume:4
Issue:12
Pages:1052-1059
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use …
Cited by:81
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Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
2021
Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacqu…
Nature Communications 12 (1), 1-10
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Authors:Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P van Vuuren
Publication date:11/05/2021
Journal:Nature Communications
Volume:12
Issue:1
Pages:1-10
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C …
Cited by:99
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ENGAGE: From COVID-19 shock to green recovery
2021
B van Ruijven, C Bertram, S Pianta, J Kikstra, A Cherp
, 27-32
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Authors:B van Ruijven, C Bertram, S Pianta, J Kikstra, A Cherp
Publication date:11/04/2021
Pages:27-32
Publisher:European Commission
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REMIND2. 1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits
2021
Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Go…
Geoscientific Model Development 14 (10), 6571-6603
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Authors:Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Gong, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jérôme Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Marian Leimbach, Antoine Levesque, Silvia Madeddu, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Bjoern Soergel, Dominika Soergel, Jessica Strefler, Falko Ueckerdt, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:10/28/2021
Journal:Geoscientific Model Development
Volume:14
Issue:10
Pages:6571-6603
Publisher:Copernicus GmbH
Description:This paper presents the new and now open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND). REMIND, as an integrated assessment model (IAM), provides an integrated view of the global energy–economy–emissions system and explores self-consistent transformation pathways. It describes a broad range of possible futures and their relation to technical and socio-economic developments as well as policy choices. REMIND is a multiregional model incorporating the economy and a detailed representation of the energy sector implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). It uses non-linear optimization to derive welfare-optimal regional transformation pathways of the energy-economic system subject to climate and sustainability constraints for the time horizon from 2005 to 2100. The resulting solution corresponds to the decentralized market outcome under the assumptions of perfect foresight of agents and internalization of external effects. REMIND enables the analyses of technology options and policy approaches for climate change mitigation with particular strength in representing the scale-up of new technologies, including renewables and their integration in power markets. The REMIND code is organized into modules that gather code relevant for specific topics. Interaction between different modules is made explicit via clearly defined sets of input and output variables. Each module can be represented by different realizations, enabling flexible configuration and extension. The spatial resolution of REMIND is flexible and depends on the resolution of the input data. Thus, the framework …
Cited by:273
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Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan
2021
Maria A Martin, Olga Alcaraz Sendra, Ana Bastos, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Thorste…
Global Sustainability 4, 1-20
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Authors:Maria A Martin, Olga Alcaraz Sendra, Ana Bastos, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Thorsten Blenckner, Kathryn Bowen, Paulo M Brando, Tanya Brodie Rudolph, Milena Büchs, Mercedes Bustamante, Deliang Chen, Helen Cleugh, Purnamita Dasgupta, Fatima Denton, Jonathan F Donges, Felix Kwabena Donkor, Hongbo Duan, Carlos M Duarte, Kristie L Ebi, Clea M Edwards, Anja Engel, Eleanor Fisher, Sabine Fuss, Juliana Gaertner, Andrew Gettelman, Cécile AJ Girardin, Nicholas R Golledge, Jessica F Green, Michael R Grose, Masahiro Hashizume, Sophie Hebden, Helmke Hepach, Marina Hirota, Huang Hsiung Hsu, Satoshi Kojima, Sharachchandra Lele, Sylvia Lorek, Heike K Lotze, H Damon Matthews, Darren McCauley, Desta Mebratu, Nadine Mengis, Rachael H Nolan, Erik Pihl, Stefan Rahmstorf, Aaron Redman, Colleen E Reid, Johan Rockström, Joeri Rogelj, Marielle Saunois, Lizzie Sayer, Peter Schlosser, Giles B Sioen, Joachim H Spangenberg, Detlef Stammer, Thomas NS Sterner, Nicola Stevens, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, Ricarda Winkelmann, James Woodcock
Publication date:10/18/2021
Journal:Global Sustainability
Volume:4
Pages:1-20
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
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A Path to Zero
2021
Christoph Bertram, Ottmar Edenhofer, Gunnar Luderer
Finance and Development 58 (3), 58-61
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Ottmar Edenhofer, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:09/30/2021
Journal:Finance and Development
Volume:58
Issue:3
Pages:58-61
Description:A Path to Zero :: PIKpublic ???ENUM_LANGUAGE_JA??? ???mainMenu_lnkPrivacyPolicy??? ???mainMenu_lnkPolicy??? ???search_lblIncludeFiles??? ???search_lblAdvancedSearch??????mainMenu_lblBrowse??? ???mainMenu_lnkHome??? ???mainMenu_lblCart??? (0)???mainMenu_lblTools??? ???ViewItemPage??? ???ViewItemFull_lblItemActions??????List_lblExportOptions??? ???ViewItemFull_lblAddToBasket??? ???itemIsNotLatestReleasedVersion??? https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25946_3 ???ViewItemFull_btnItemView??????ViewItemOverview_lblLinkOverviewPage??? ???ENUM_STATE_RELEASED??? ???ENUM_GENRE_ARTICLE??? A Path to Zero ???ViewItemOverview_lblSpecificAuthorsSection??? /persons/resource/Bertram Bertram, Christoph Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; /persons/resource/Ottmar.Edenhofer Edenhofer, Ottmar …
Cited by:3
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A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
2021
Bjoern Soergel, Elmar Kriegler, Isabelle Weindl, Sebastian Rauner, Alois Dirnaichner, C…
Nature Climate Change 11 (8), 656-664
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Authors:Bjoern Soergel, Elmar Kriegler, Isabelle Weindl, Sebastian Rauner, Alois Dirnaichner, Constantin Ruhe, Matthias Hofmann, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Marian Leimbach, Julia Leininger, Antoine Levesque, Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Christopher Wingens, Lavinia Baumstark, Felicitas Beier, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Florian Humpenöder, Patrick von Jeetze, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Robert Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp
Publication date:08/01/2021
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:11
Issue:8
Pages:656-664
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps …
Cited by:668
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Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals
2021
Christoph Bertram, Keywan Riahi, Jérôme Hilaire, Valentina Bosetti, Laurent Drouet, Oli…
Environmental Research Letters 16 (7), 074020
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Keywan Riahi, Jérôme Hilaire, Valentina Bosetti, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Aman Malik, Larissa Pupo Nogueira, Bob Van Der Zwaan, Bas Van Ruijven, Detlef Van Vuuren, Matthias Weitzel, Francesco Dalla Longa, Harmen-Sytze De Boer, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mathijs Harmsen, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Leonidas Paroussos, Deger Saygin, Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:07/01/2021
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:16
Issue:7
Pages:074020
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set …
Cited by:103
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NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors
2021
Network for Greening the Financial System
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Authors:Network for Greening the Financial System
Publication date:06/01/2021
Publisher:NGFS
Cited by:63
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Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5° C–2° C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res …
2021
Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laur…
Environmental Research Letters 16 (5), 059501
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Authors:Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef Van Vuuren
Publication date:05/01/2021
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:16
Issue:5
Pages:059501
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:We have identified an error in the text of section 3.3 where the health co-benefits of 1.5◦ C+ MFR scenario in the whole of Asia are compared to the reference. Inthelastparagraphofthesection3. 3 (page11), the manuscript states that ‘Across the Asia domain, this reduction is approximately 2.5–3 million cases or 40%–51% depending on the IAM used’. Unfortunately, the numbers quoted here were accidentally taken from a sensitivity analysis using different integrated exposure-response curves (GBD-2010, obtained from Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network 2013), which have not been used in the results shown in the paper—our results are based on the GBD-2013 version, reported by Forouzanfar et al (2015). The correct statement is:‘Across the Asia domain, this reduction is approximately 1.2–1.5 million cases or 33%–42% depending on the IAM used’.
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Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5° C warming limit
2021
Hongbo Duan, Sheng Zhou, Kejun Jiang, Christoph Bertram, Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegle…
Science 372 (6540), 378-385
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Authors:Hongbo Duan, Sheng Zhou, Kejun Jiang, Christoph Bertram, Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P van Vuuren, Shouyang Wang, Shinichiro Fujimori, Massimo Tavoni, Xi Ming, Kimon Keramidas, Gokul Iyer, James Edmonds
Publication date:04/23/2021
Journal:Science
Volume:372
Issue:6540
Pages:378-385
Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science
Description:Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product …
Cited by:626
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Air quality and health implications of 1.5° C–2° C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis
2021
Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laur…
Environmental Research Letters 16 (4), 045005
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Authors:Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren
Publication date:03/23/2021
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:16
Issue:4
Pages:045005
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are …
Cited by:60
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COVID-19 Pandemic Impact: Reduced CO2 Emissions in the Power Sector
2021
Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Felix Creutzig, Nicolas Bauer, Falko Ueckerdt, Aman …
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Felix Creutzig, Nicolas Bauer, Falko Ueckerdt, Aman Malik, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:03/08/2021
Publisher:< bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung>>
Description:The COVID-19 pandemic led to a notable decline in global power sector CO2 emissions. This reduction is attributed to two main factors: the economic downturn that decreased electricity demand, and a decrease in carbon intensity of power generation due to a substantial decrease in coal power generation. These effects highlight opportunities for policies to drive a continued and accelerated decline in power sector emissions. The findings emphasize the potential for structural changes in energy systems to mitigate climate change.
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COVID-19-induced low power demand and market forces starkly reduce CO 2 emissions
2021
Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Felix Creutzig, Nico Bauer, Falko Ueckerdt, Aman Mal…
Nature Climate Change 11 (3), 193-196
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Felix Creutzig, Nico Bauer, Falko Ueckerdt, Aman Malik, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:03/01/2021
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:11
Issue:3
Pages:193-196
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:The COVID-19 pandemic continues to strongly affect global energy systems. Global power sector CO2 emissions have shown a substantial decline, thanks to (a) the COVID-19-induced economic downturn and resulting reduction of electricity demand and (b) a decrease of carbon intensity of power generation as coal generation is decreased most strongly. These effects illustrate the opportunity for different policies to support a structural and accelerating decline of power sector emissions.
Cited by:159
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REMIND2. 1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6571–6603
2021
Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Go…
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Authors:Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Gong, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jerome Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Marian Leimbach, Antoine Levesque, Silvia Madeddu, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Bjoern Soergel, Dominika Soergel, Jessica Strefler, Falko Ueckerdt, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:01/01/2021
Publisher:gmd-14-6571-2021
Cited by:67
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Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan
2021
MA Martin, OA Sendra, A Bastos, N Bauer, C Bertram, T Blenckner, K Bowen, PM Brando, TB…
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Authors:MA Martin, OA Sendra, A Bastos, N Bauer, C Bertram, T Blenckner, K Bowen, PM Brando, TB Rudolph, M Bustamante, D Chen, H Cleugh, P Dasgupta, F Denton, JF Donges, FK Donkor, H Duan, CM Duarte, KL Ebi, CM Edwards, A Engel, E Fisher, S Fuss, J Gaertner, A Gettelman, CAJ Girardin, NR Golledge, JF Green, MR Grose, M Hashizume, S Hebden, H Hepach, M Hirota, H-H Hsu, S Kojima, S Lele, S Lorek, HK Lotze, HD Matthews, D McCauley, D Mebratu, N Mengis, RH Nolan, E Pihl, S Rahmstorf, A Redman, CE Reid, J Rogelj, M Saunois, L Sayer, P Schlosser, GB Sioen, JH Spangenberg, D Stammer, TNS Sterner, N Stevens, K Thonicke, H Tian, R Winkelmann, J Woodcock
Publication date:01/01/2021
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
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El camino hacia emisiones cero: es posible lograr cero emisiones netas con políticas integrales
2021
Christoph Bertram, Ottmar Edenhofer, Gunnar Luderer
Finanzas y desarrollo: publicación trimestral del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del B…
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Ottmar Edenhofer, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:01/01/2021
Journal:Finanzas y desarrollo: publicación trimestral del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco Mundial
Volume:58
Issue:3
Pages:58-61
Publisher:Fondo Monetario Internacional
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10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021
2021
H Damon Matthews, Joeri Rogelj, Aaron Redman, Nadine Mengis, Sopie Hebden, Rachael Nola…
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Authors:H Damon Matthews, Joeri Rogelj, Aaron Redman, Nadine Mengis, Sopie Hebden, Rachael Nolan, Helmke Hepach, Jonathan F Donges, Maria A Martin, Milena Büchs, Clea Edwards, Sylvia Lorek, Jessica F Green, Erik Pihl, Sabine Fuss, Juliana Gärtner, Heike Lotze, Kathryn Bowen, Giles B Sioen, James Woodcock, Olga Alcaraz Sedra, Ana Bastos, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Thorsten Blenckner, Paul M Brando, Tanya Brodie Rudolph, Purnamita Dasgupta, Felix K Donkor, Hongbo Duan, Carlos M Duarte, Anja Engel, Andrew Gettelman, Cecile AJ Girardin, Nicholas R Golledge, Michael R Grose, Masahiro Hashizume, Marina Hirota, Satoshi Kojima, Sharachchandra Lele, Darren McCauley, Desta M'ebratu, Stefan Rahmstorf, Colleen E Reid, Marielle Saunois, Joachim H Spangenberg, Thomas NS Sterner, Nicola Stevens, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, Ricarda Winkelmann
Publication date:01/01/2021
Description:“To put it simply, the state of the planet is broken,” as United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres said in the 2021 State of the Planet address. 1 Over the course of this past year and while the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, massive wildfires wreaked havoc in places such as Siberia, western USA and Greece; cyclones devastated parts of South East Asia and the South Pacific; unprecedented and severe winter storms caused an extended power outage in the southern US state of Texas; and many parts of Europe experienced catastrophic flooding. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report should have put to rest any remaining doubts about the sources or impacts of climate change, and the 2018 IPCC Special Report covered how climate change strongly intersects with and amplifies threats to human and ecosystem health. The present study of the past year’s climate change research parses the complexity of earth’s systems in this context by highlighting 10 pertinent aspects, each of which is intrinsically linked to all others. As this summary report shows, achieving the Paris Agreement target of a maximum of 1.5 C global temperature warming above pre-industrial levels is still possible. However, this will require transformations across all sectors, including deep decarbonization, and drastic coordinated global action to support lower-income countries in making climate-smart transitions as well as holding the highest emitters to account. Targeted measures that are designed and implemented to prioritize equity are needed urgently at all levels: structural, political and individual. The greatest …
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NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set Version 2.0
2021
C Bertram, B van Ruijven, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, L Clarke, R Cui, J Edmonds, M Charles,…
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Authors:C Bertram, B van Ruijven, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, L Clarke, R Cui, J Edmonds, M Charles, A Zhao, I Sauer, J Min, F Piontek, J Rogelj, F Sferra, S Yu, D Holland, I Liadze, I Hurst
Publication date:01/01/2021
Publisher:Zenodo
Description:This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 2 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 2 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways. Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.
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NGFS Climate Scenario Database: Technical Documentation V2. 2
2021
C Bertram, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, T Beck, D Bresch, L Clarke, R Cui, J Edmonds, M Charl…
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Authors:C Bertram, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, T Beck, D Bresch, L Clarke, R Cui, J Edmonds, M Charles, A Zhao, C Kropf, I Sauer, Q Lejeune, P Pfleiderer, J Min, F Piontek, J Rogelj, CF Schleussner, F Sferra, B van Ruijven, S Yu, D Holland, I Liadze, I Hurst
Publication date:01/01/2021
Publisher:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETHZ)
Description:This document provides technical information on the two datasets behind the NGFS scenarios. It is intended to answer technical questions for those who want to perform analyses on the datasets themselves. It is an update of the Technical Documentation published in June 2020 alongside the first set of NGFS Scenarios. It is therefore aligned with the second set of NGFS Scenarios, released in June 2021.
Cited by:15
Resources:[PDF] from iiasa.ac.at
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Ten new insights in climate science 2021: A horizon scan
2021
Maria A Martin, Olga Alcaraz Sendra, Ana Bastos, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Thorste…
Global Sustainability 4, e25
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Authors:Maria A Martin, Olga Alcaraz Sendra, Ana Bastos, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Thorsten Blenckner, Kathryn Bowen, Paulo M Brando, Tanya Brodie Rudolph, Milena Büchs, Mercedes Bustamante, Deliang Chen, Helen Cleugh, Purnamita Dasgupta, Fatima Denton, Jonathan F Donges, Felix Kwabena Donkor, Hongbo Duan, Carlos M Duarte, Kristie L Ebi, Clea M Edwards, Anja Engel, Eleanor Fisher, Sabine Fuss, Juliana Gärtner, Andrew Gettelman, Cécile AJ Girardin, Nicholas R Golledge, Jessica F Green, Michael R Grose, Masahiro Hashizume, Sophie Hebden, Helmke Hepach, Marina Hirota, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Satoshi Kojima, Sharachchandra Lele, Sylvia Lorek, Heike K Lotze, H Damon Matthews, Darren McCauley, Desta Mebratu, Nadine Mengis, Rachael H Nolan, Erik Pihl, Stefan Rahmstorf, Aaron Redman, Colleen E Reid, Johan Rockström, Joeri Rogelj, Marielle Saunois, Lizzie Sayer, Peter Schlosser, Giles B Sioen, Joachim H Spangenberg, Detlef Stammer, Thomas NS Sterner, Nicola Stevens, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, Ricarda Winkelmann, James Woodcock
Publication date:01/01/2021
Journal:Global Sustainability
Volume:4
Pages:e25
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
Description:Non-technical summaryWe summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summaryA synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an …
Cited by:100
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Agriculture and land use implications of early climate change mitigation efforts without reliance on net-negative emissions
2020
Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Stefan Frank, Florian Humpenöder, Christoph Bertr…
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Authors:Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Stefan Frank, Florian Humpenöder, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Mykola Gusti, Mathijs Harmsen, Kimon Keramidas, Ken Oshiro, Pedro Rochedo, Bastiaan van Ruijven, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Florian Fosse, Petr Havlík, Volker Krey, Alexander Popp, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:12/29/2020
Description:Agriculture and land use implications of early climate change mitigation efforts without reliance on net-negative emissions Page 1 Agriculture and land use implications of early climate change mitigation efforts without reliance on net-negative emissions Tomoko Hasegawa (  ) Ritsumeikan University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789 Shinichiro Fujimori Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University Stefan Frank International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Florian Humpenöder Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2927-9407 Christoph Bertram Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0933-4395 Jacques Després Joint Research Center https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9851-9964 Laurent Drouet RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE) https://orcid.org/0000-00024087-…
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Quantification of an efficiency–sovereignty trade-off in climate policy
2020
Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Anselm Schultes, David Klein, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Krie…
Nature 588 (7837), 261-266
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Authors:Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Anselm Schultes, David Klein, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Alexander Popp, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:12/01/2020
Journal:Nature
Volume:588
Issue:7837
Pages:261-266
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:The Paris Agreement calls for a cooperative response with the aim of limiting global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while reaffirming the principles of equity and common, but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities. Although the goal is clear, the approach required to achieve it is not. Cap-and-trade policies using uniform carbon prices could produce cost-effective reductions of global carbon emissions, but tend to impose relatively high mitigation costs on developing and emerging economies. Huge international financial transfers are required to complement cap-and-trade to achieve equal sharing of effort, defined as an equal distribution of mitigation costs as a share of income,, and therefore the cap-and-trade policy is often perceived as infringing on national sovereignty, , , , –. Here we show that a strategy of international financial transfers guided by moderate …
Cited by:170
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The REMIND-MAgPIE model and scenarios for transition risk analysis
2020
Jérôme Hilaire, Christoph Bertram
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Authors:Jérôme Hilaire, Christoph Bertram
Publication date:11/02/2020
Publisher:Technical report, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Cited by:9
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Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets
2020
Ken Oshiro, Keii Gi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Heleen L van Soest, Christoph Bertram, Jacque…
Climatic Change 162 (4), 1913-1927
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Authors:Ken Oshiro, Keii Gi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Heleen L van Soest, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Toshihiko Masui, Pedro Rochedo, Mark Roelfsema, Zoi Vrontisi
Publication date:10/01/2020
Journal:Climatic Change
Volume:162
Issue:4
Pages:1913-1927
Publisher:Springer Netherlands
Description:This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO2 (2011–2100) for global models, and 36 and 31 Gt-CO2 (2011–2050) in Japan for national models, based on the cost-effectiveness allocation performed by the global models. The impacts of near-term policy assumption, including the implementation and enhancement of the 2030 target of the nationally determined contribution (NDC), are also considered. Our estimates show that the low budget scenarios require a 75% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 below the 2010 level, which is nearly the same as Japan’s governmental 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 …
Cited by:49
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Comparing transformation pathways across major economies
2020
Roberto Schaeffer, A Köberle, HL van Soest, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan R…
Climatic Change 162 (4), 1787-1803
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Authors:Roberto Schaeffer, A Köberle, HL van Soest, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey, DP van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Shinichiro Fujimori, W Chen, Chenmin He, Zoi Vrontisi, S Vishwanathan, Amit Garg, Ritu Mathur, Swapnil Shekhar, Ken Oshiro, Falko Ueckerdt, George Safonov, G Iyer, Keii Gi, V Potashnikov
Publication date:10/01/2020
Journal:Climatic Change
Volume:162
Issue:4
Pages:1787-1803
Publisher:Springer Netherlands
Description:This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C as compared with pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the process by which global integrated assessment model (IAM) teams interacted and derived boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for the different countries. Carbon budgets so derived for the 2011–2050 period were then used in eleven different national energy-economy models and IAMs for producing low-carbon pathways for the seven countries in line with a well below 2 °C …
Cited by:53
Resources:[PDF] from uu.nl
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Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector
2020
Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Despres, Johannes Emmerling, Shinichiro Fujimori…
Environmental Research Letters 15 (9), 094091
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Authors:Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Despres, Johannes Emmerling, Shinichiro Fujimori, Amit Garg, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Ritu Mathur, Mark Roelfsema, Swapnil Shekhar, Saritha Vishwanathan, Zoi Vrontisi
Publication date:09/02/2020
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:15
Issue:9
Pages:094091
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Cost-effective achievement of the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals requires the unanimous phase-out of coal power generation by mid-century. However, continued investments in coal power plants will make this transition difficult. India is one of the major countries with significant under construction and planned increase in coal power capacity. To ascertain the likelihood and consequences of the continued expansion of coal power for India’s future mitigation options, we use harmonised scenario results from national and global models along with projections from various government reports. Both these approaches estimate that coal capacity is expected to increase until 2030, along with rapid developments in wind and solar power. However, coal capacity stranding of the order of 133–237 GW needs to occur after 2030 if India were to pursue an ambitious climate policy in line with a well-below 2 °C target. Earlier …
Cited by:60
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Early Transformation of China’s Power Sector for Coal Lock-in Avoidance
2020
H Wang, W Chen, Christoph Bertram, Aman Malik, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, J Despré…
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Authors:H Wang, W Chen, Christoph Bertram, Aman Malik, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, J Després, K Jiang, V Krey
Publication date:04/29/2020
Publisher:< bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung>>
Description:This study investigates the potential for early transformation of China's power sector to avoid coal lock-in and align with the Paris Agreement's well-below 2°C target. Using five integrated assessment models and bottom-up data, the research analyzes scenarios considering China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and stricter carbon budgets. Results suggest that relying solely on NDC goals is insufficient to reduce coal power generation, potentially leading to increased coal capacity before 2030. Early action, starting in 2020, is crucial to mitigate the risk of stranded coal assets and facilitate a smoother transition to alternative energy sources like nuclear, wind, and solar power.
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Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
2020
Mark Roelfsema, Heleen L van Soest, Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P van Vuuren, Christoph Ber…
Nature Communications 11 (1), 1-12
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Authors:Mark Roelfsema, Heleen L van Soest, Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Gabriela Iacobuta, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Falko Ueckerdt, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Matthew Gidden, Florian Humpenöder, Daniel Huppmann, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Keii Gi, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Köberle, Lara Aleluia Reis, Pedro Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Ken Oshiro, Zoi Vrontisi, Wenying Chen, Gokul C Iyer, Jae Edmonds, Maria Kannavou, Kejun Jiang, Ritu Mathur, George Safonov, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan
Publication date:04/29/2020
Journal:Nature Communications
Volume:11
Issue:1
Pages:1-12
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would …
Cited by:592
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Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter
2020
Jessica Jewell, Johannes Emmerling, Vadim Vinichenko, Christoph Bertram, Loïc Berger, H…
Nature 578 (7793), E5-E7
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Authors:Jessica Jewell, Johannes Emmerling, Vadim Vinichenko, Christoph Bertram, Loïc Berger, Hannah E Daly, Ilkka Keppo, Volker Krey, David EHJ Gernaat, Kostas Fragkiadakis, David McCollum, Leonidas Paroussas, Keywan Riahi, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef Van Vuuren
Publication date:02/01/2020
Journal:Nature
Volume:578
Issue:7793
Pages:E5-E7
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Around the globe, governments have pledged to remove support for coal, oil and gas, noting that such fossil fuel subsidies “undermine efforts to deal with climate change” by keeping greenhouse gas emissions higher than they otherwise would be 1. Jewell et al. 2 used results of integrated assessment models to infer that eliminating subsidies would yield “limited emission reductions… except in energy-exporting regions”, and described the emission reduction benefits as “small”. This characterization is potentially misleading, and here we use a simple, sector-specific model to show how the emission reductions from producer subsidy reform could be more material than Jewell et al. suggest 3. Fossil fuel producer subsidies delay a low-carbon transition in ways both material and political, and they deserve greater attention and transparency in global modelling analyses, as well as in policy-making. The study by Jewell …
Cited by:8
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Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in
2020
Huan Wang, Wenying Chen, Christoph Bertram, Aman Malik, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer,…
Environmental Research Letters 15 (2), 024007
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Authors:Huan Wang, Wenying Chen, Christoph Bertram, Aman Malik, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Jacques Després, Kejun Jiang, Volker Krey
Publication date:01/28/2020
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:15
Issue:2
Pages:024007
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China’s carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models’ results with bottom-up data on current …
Cited by:51
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NGFS Climate Scenarios Database: Technical Documentation
2020
Chris Bertram, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, T Beck, DN Bresch, L Clarke, R Cui, J Edmonds, J …
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Authors:Chris Bertram, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, T Beck, DN Bresch, L Clarke, R Cui, J Edmonds, J Min, F Piontek, J Rogelj, C-F Schleussner, B van Ruijven, S Yu
Publication date:01/01/2020
Publisher:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ)
Description:This document provides technical information on the two datasets constituting the NGFS reference scenarios (see NGFS Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors). One dataset includes transition pathways and data on macro-economic impacts from physical risks, both of which available in the NGFS Scenario Explorer provided by IIASA. The other dataset covers the physical impact data collected by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These datasets are generated with a suite of models including integrated assessment models, general circulation models, sectoral impact models and global macroeconomic damage functions. They are linked together in a coherent way by aligning global warming levels. For each dataset, the most important technical details of the underlying academic work and a short user guide are provided. These are complemented by links to other resources with more detailed information.
Cited by:18
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The REMIND-MAgPIE model and scenarios for transition risk analysis. A report prepared by PIK for the UNEP-FI Banking Pilot project (Phase 2)
2020
Jérôme Hilaire, Christoph Bertram
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Authors:Jérôme Hilaire, Christoph Bertram
Publication date:01/01/2020
Publisher:Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Description:This technical report documents the REMIND-MAgPIE model and the REMIND-MAgPIE scenarios that were selected to support transition risk analysis for the Task-Force for Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Banking Pilot Phase II. REMIND-MAgPIE is an optimisation model that integrates the macroeconomic, agriculture and land-use, energy, water and climate systems. It describes, in a forward-looking fashion, the complex and non-linear dynamics in and between these systems. In line with the TCFD recommendations, the scenarios generated with this model can be integrated into risks assessments frameworks to identify and evaluate the risks related to a transition to a low-carbon economy.
Cited by:4
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A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
2019
Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Ben…
Nature Sustainability 2 (5), 386-396
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Authors:Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason FL Koopman, Hans van Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander Popp, Andreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Detlef van Vuuren
Publication date:05/01/2019
Journal:Nature Sustainability
Volume:2
Issue:5
Pages:386-396
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial …
Cited by:333
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Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models
2019
Volker Krey, Fei Guo, Peter Kolp, Wenji Zhou, Roberto Schaeffer, Aayushi Awasthy, Chris…
Energy 172, 1254-1267
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Authors:Volker Krey, Fei Guo, Peter Kolp, Wenji Zhou, Roberto Schaeffer, Aayushi Awasthy, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Panagiotis Fragkos, Shinichiro Fujimori, Chenmin He, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Köberle, Ken Oshiro, Lara Aleluia Reis, Bianka Shoai-Tehrani, Saritha Vishwanathan, Pantelis Capros, Laurent Drouet, James E Edmonds, Amit Garg, David EHJ Gernaat, Kejun Jiang, Maria Kannavou, Alban Kitous, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Ritu Mathur, Matteo Muratori, Fuminori Sano, Detlef P van Vuuren
Publication date:04/01/2019
Journal:Energy
Volume:172
Pages:1254-1267
Publisher:Pergamon
Description:Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models …
Cited by:230
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Global greenhouse gas emission pathways until 2050. Final report
2019
Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Bodirsky, Laura Delsa, Florian Humpenöder, Gunnar Luderer, …
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Bodirsky, Laura Delsa, Florian Humpenöder, Gunnar Luderer, Alexander Popp, Felix Creutzig, Sabine Fuss, Jan Minx, Christoph von Stechow
Publication date:04/01/2019
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Linking climate and sustainable development: policy insights from national and global pathways
2019
K Riahi, V Krey, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, D van Vuuren, M Roe…
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Authors:K Riahi, V Krey, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, D van Vuuren, M Roelfsema, M van Soest, R Schaeffer, S Pachauri, Michael Pahle, R Mathur, V Bosetti, L Drouet, Z Vrontisi, CD-LINKS Consortium
Publication date:01/01/2019
Publisher:IIASA
Description:Incorporating climate action into the broader sustainable development agenda is an important issue for policy makers in the G20 and beyond, encompassing objectives such as energy poverty eradication, increased well-being and welfare, air quality improvement, conserving biodiversity and ensuring food and water availability. However, there have been relatively few scientific analyses that have explored the complex interplay between climate action and development while simultaneously taking both global and national perspectives. The CD-LINKS project contributed to filling these critical knowledge gaps by exploring the complex interplay between climate action and development through both global and national perspectives, providing information to aid the design of complementary climate-development policies. The project aimed to • gain an improved understanding of the linkages between climate change policies (mitigation/adaptation) and multiple sustainable development objectives;• broaden the evidence base in the area of policy effectiveness by exploring past and current policy experiences;• develop the next generation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways; and• establish a research network and capacity building platform to leverage knowledge exchange among institutions from the EU and other key players within the G20, including Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, and the United States.
Cited by:9
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Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (vol 3, pg 589, 2018)
2018
David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosett…
Nature Energy 3 (8), 699-699
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Authors:David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Despres, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:08/01/2018
Journal:Nature Energy
Volume:3
Issue:8
Pages:699-699
Publisher:NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
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Erratum to: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (Nature Energy,(2018), 3, 7,(589-599), 10.1038/s41560-018 …
2018
David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosett…
Nature Energy 3 (8)
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Authors:David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:08/01/2018
Journal:Nature Energy
Volume:3
Issue:8
Publisher:Springer Nature
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Author Correction: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
2018
David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosett…
Nature Energy 3 (8), 699-699
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Authors:David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:08/01/2018
Journal:Nature Energy
Volume:3
Issue:8
Pages:699-699
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:In the version of ‘Supplementary Data 1’originally published with this Article, the units for the ‘Capacity| Electricity|*’variables in the ‘Non_Investment_Annual’tab were incorrectly given as EJ/yr; they should have read GW. This has now been corrected. Also, some of the variables listed in the ‘Non_Investment_Variable_Defs’ were not required and have therefore been removed.
Cited by:9
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Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals
2018
Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram, Takeshi Kuramochi, Michael Jakob, Michaja Pehl, Miod…
Environmental Research Letters 13 (7), 074022
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Authors:Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram, Takeshi Kuramochi, Michael Jakob, Michaja Pehl, Miodrag Stevanović, Niklas Höhne, Gunnar Luderer, Jan C Minx, Hanna Fekete, Jérôme Hilaire, Lisa Luna, Alexander Popp, Jan Christoph Steckel, Sebastian Sterl, Amsalu Woldie Yalew, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:07/06/2018
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:13
Issue:7
Pages:074022
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Climate policy needs to account for political and social acceptance. Current national climate policy plans proposed under the Paris Agreement lead to higher emissions until 2030 than cost-effective pathways towards the Agreements’ long-term temperature goals would imply. Therefore, the current plans would require highly disruptive changes, prohibitive transition speeds, and large long-term deployment of risky mitigation measures for achieving the agreement’s temperature goals after 2030. Since the prospects of introducing the cost-effective policy instrument, a global comprehensive carbon price in the near-term, are negligible, we study how a strengthening of existing plans by a global roll-out of regional policies can ease the implementation challenge of reaching the Paris temperature goals. The regional policies comprise a bundle of regulatory policies in energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, and land …
Cited by:112
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Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
2018
David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze De Boer, Valentina Bosett…
Nature Energy 3 (7), 589-599
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Authors:David L McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze De Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef Van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:07/01/2018
Journal:Nature Energy
Volume:3
Issue:7
Pages:589-599
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation …
Cited by:824
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Residual fossil CO 2 emissions in 1.5–2 C pathways
2018
Gunnar Luderer, Zoi Vrontisi, Christoph Bertram, Oreane Y Edelenbosch, Robert C Pietzck…
Nature Climate Change 8 (7), 626-633
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Zoi Vrontisi, Christoph Bertram, Oreane Y Edelenbosch, Robert C Pietzcker, Joeri Rogelj, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlík, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Michaja Pehl, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Bert Saveyn, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P Van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:07/01/2018
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:8
Issue:7
Pages:626-633
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2 by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO2 removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of …
Cited by:690
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Targeted policies can compensate most of the increased sustainability risks in 1.5 C mitigation scenarios
2018
Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Alexander Popp, Jan Christoph Minx, William F Lamb, …
Environmental Research Letters 13 (6), 064038
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Alexander Popp, Jan Christoph Minx, William F Lamb, Miodrag Stevanović, Florian Humpenöder, Anastasis Giannousakis, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:06/19/2018
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:13
Issue:6
Pages:064038
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:Meeting the 1.5 °C goal will require a rapid scale-up of zero-carbon energy supply, fuel switching to electricity, efficiency and demand-reduction in all sectors, and the replenishment of natural carbon sinks. These transformations will have immediate impacts on various of the sustainable development goals. As goals such as affordable and clean energy and zero hunger are more immediate to great parts of global population, these impacts are central for societal acceptability of climate policies. Yet, little is known about how the achievement of other social and environmental sustainability objectives can be directly managed through emission reduction policies. In addition, the integrated assessment literature has so far emphasized a single, global (cost-minimizing) carbon price as the optimal mechanism to achieve emissions reductions. In this paper we introduce a broader suite of policies—including direct sector …
Cited by:97
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Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment
2018
Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer, Bert Saveyn, Kimon Keramidas, Aleluia Reis Lara, Lavinia …
Environmental Research Letters 13 (4), 044039
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Authors:Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer, Bert Saveyn, Kimon Keramidas, Aleluia Reis Lara, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Laurent Drouet, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Céline Guivarch, Alban Kitous, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Eoin Ó Broin, Leonidas Paroussos, Detlef Van Vuuren
Publication date:04/26/2018
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:13
Issue:4
Pages:044039
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO2eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO2 emission reductions in all scenarios …
Cited by:108
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Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated
2018
Ottmar Edenhofer, Jan Christoph Steckel, Michael Jakob, Christoph Bertram
Environmental Research Letters 13 (2), 024019
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Authors:Ottmar Edenhofer, Jan Christoph Steckel, Michael Jakob, Christoph Bertram
Publication date:02/07/2018
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:13
Issue:2
Pages:024019
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:We estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned. Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries’ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about ‘coal’s terminal decline’ may thereby be premature. The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies. We discuss the political economy of policy options that could …
Cited by:170
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Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions
2018
Jessica Jewell, David McCollum, Johannes Emmerling, Christoph Bertram, David EHJ Gernaa…
Nature 554 (7691), 229-233
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Authors:Jessica Jewell, David McCollum, Johannes Emmerling, Christoph Bertram, David EHJ Gernaat, Volker Krey, Leonidas Paroussos, Loïc Berger, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ilkka Keppo, Nawfal Saadi, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef Van Vuuren, Vadim Vinichenko, Keywan Riahi
Publication date:02/01/2018
Journal:Nature
Volume:554
Issue:7691
Pages:229-233
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Hopes are high that removing fossil fuel subsidies could help to mitigate climate change by discouraging inefficient energy consumption and levelling the playing field for renewable energy,,. In September 2016, the G20 countries re-affirmed their 2009 commitment (at the G20 Leaders’ Summit) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, and many national governments are using today’s low oil prices as an opportunity to do so,,,. In practical terms, this means abandoning policies that decrease the price of fossil fuels and electricity generated from fossil fuels to below normal market prices,. However, whether the removal of subsidies, even if implemented worldwide, would have a large impact on climate change mitigation has not been systematically explored. Here we show that removing fossil fuel subsidies would have an unexpectedly small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not …
Cited by:277
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IAMC 1.5 C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA
2018
Daniel Huppmann, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Steven K Rose…
Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium & International Institute for Applied Systems…
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Authors:Daniel Huppmann, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Steven K Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Christoph Bertram, Valentina Bosetti, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Arnulf Grubler, Celine Guivarch, Martin Haigh, Christian Holz, Gokul Iyer, Etsushi Kato, Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Florian Leblanc, Jing-Yu Liu, Konstantin Löffler, Gunnar Luderer, Adriana Marcucci, David McCollum, Silvana Mima, Alexander Popp, Ronald D Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica Strefler, Junichi Tsutsui, Detlef Van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Marshall Wise, Runsen Zhang
Publication date:01/01/2018
Journal:Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Volume:10
Description:Deprecation warning This is no longer the latest release of the IPCC Assessment Report. For the latest version please visit https://doi. org/10.5281/zenodo. 5886911 and https://data. ece. iiasa. ac. at/ar6 for the AR6 Scenario Explorer where you can download the data set. As part of the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C (SR15), an assessment of quantitative, model-based climate change mitigation pathways was conducted. To support the assessment, the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) facilitated a coordinated and systematic community effort by inviting modelling teams to submit their available 1.5 C and related scenarios to a curated database. The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC SR15, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains more than 400 emissions pathways with underlying socio-economic development, energy system transformations and land use change until the end of the century, submitted by over a dozen research teams from around the world. The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than May 15, 2018, or published in a report determined by the IPCC to be eligible grey literature by the same date. This release extends the original scenario ensemble with additional timeseries data on prices related to agiculture and food supply, which was used in the IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and …
Cited by:264
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Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices
2017
David L McCollum, Charlie Wilson, Hazel Pettifor, Kalai Ramea, Volker Krey, Keywan Riah…
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 55, 322-342
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Authors:David L McCollum, Charlie Wilson, Hazel Pettifor, Kalai Ramea, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Zhenhong Lin, Oreane Y Edelenbosch, Sei Fujisawa
Publication date:08/01/2017
Journal:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume:55
Pages:322-342
Publisher:Pergamon
Description:A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The …
Cited by:296
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Decomposing passenger transport futures: comparing results of global integrated assessment models
2017
Oreane Y Edelenbosch, DL McCollum, DP Van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Samuel Carrara, Ha…
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 55, 281-293
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Authors:Oreane Y Edelenbosch, DL McCollum, DP Van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Samuel Carrara, Hannah Daly, Shinichiro Fujimori, Alban Kitous, P Kyle, E Ó Broin, P Karkatsoulis, Fuminori Sano
Publication date:08/01/2017
Journal:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume:55
Pages:281-293
Publisher:Pergamon
Description:The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as …
Cited by:172
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Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections: Comparison of integrated assessment models
2017
Oreane Yasmin Edelenbosch, DP Van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, S Carrara, J Emmerling, H …
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 55, 310-321
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Authors:Oreane Yasmin Edelenbosch, DP Van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, S Carrara, J Emmerling, H Daly, A Kitous, DL McCollum, N Saadi Failali
Publication date:08/01/2017
Journal:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume:55
Pages:310-321
Publisher:Pergamon
Description:Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport fuel demand elasticities to projected income and fuel price levels. Fuel price shocks were simulated under various scenario assumptions to isolate price effects on energy demand and create a transparent environment to compare fuel demand response. Interestingly, the models show very comparable oil price elasticity values for the projected first 10–20 years that are also close to the range described in the empirical literature. When looking at the very long term (30–40 years), demand elasticity values widely vary between models, between 0.4 and −1.9, showing either continuous demand or increased demand …
Cited by:41
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Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
2017
Elmar Kriegler, Nico Bauer, Alexander Popp, Florian Humpenöder, Marian Leimbach, Jessic…
Global environmental change 42, 297-315
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Authors:Elmar Kriegler, Nico Bauer, Alexander Popp, Florian Humpenöder, Marian Leimbach, Jessica Strefler, Lavinia Baumstark, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jerome Hilaire, David Klein, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Isabelle Weindl, Christoph Bertram, Jan-Philipp Dietrich, Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Robert Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Anne Biewald, Markus Bonsch, Anastasis Giannousakis, Ulrich Kreidenweis, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Anselm Schultes, Jana Schwanitz, Miodrag Stevanovic, Katherine Calvin, Johannes Emmerling, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:01/01/2017
Journal:Global environmental change
Volume:42
Pages:297-315
Publisher:Pergamon
Description:This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper …
Cited by:886
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Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways
2016
Gunnar Luderer, Christoph Bertram, Katherine Calvin, Enrica De Cian, Elmar Kriegler
Climatic Change 136 (1), 127-140
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Christoph Bertram, Katherine Calvin, Enrica De Cian, Elmar Kriegler
Publication date:05/01/2016
Journal:Climatic Change
Volume:136
Issue:1
Pages:127-140
Publisher:Springer Netherlands
Description:While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the …
Cited by:135
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2° C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall?
2016
Christoph von Stechow, Jan C Minx, Keywan Riahi, Jessica Jewell, David L McCollum, Max …
Environmental Research Letters 11 (3), 034022
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Authors:Christoph von Stechow, Jan C Minx, Keywan Riahi, Jessica Jewell, David L McCollum, Max W Callaghan, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Giovanni Baiocchi
Publication date:03/16/2016
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:11
Issue:3
Pages:034022
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs …
Cited by:284
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Description of the REMIND model (Version 1.6)
2015
Gunnar Luderer, Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Elmar Kriegler, Lavinia Baumstark, Christo…
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Elmar Kriegler, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jerome Hilaire, David Klein, Antoine Levesque, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Michaja Pehl, Robert Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Niklas Roming, Anselm Schultes, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Jessica Strefler
Publication date:11/30/2015
Description:This document describes the REMIND model in its version 1.6. REMIND is an integrated assessment model of the energy-economy-climate system. REMIND stands for “Regional Model of Investments and Development.”
Cited by:167
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Beyond the numbers: understanding the transformation induced by INDCs
2015
Thomas Spencer, Roberta Pierfederici, Henri Waisman, Michel Colombier, Christoph Bertra…
(INIS-FR--17-0724)
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Authors:Thomas Spencer, Roberta Pierfederici, Henri Waisman, Michel Colombier, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Florian Humpenoeder, Alexander Popp, Ottmar Edenhofer, Michel Den Elzen, Detlef Van Vuuren, Heleen Van Soest, Leonidas Paroussos, Panagiotis Fragkos, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui, Ken Oshiro, Keigo Akimoto, Bianka Shoai Tehrani, Fuminori Sano, Junichiro Oda, Leon Clarke, Gokul Iyer, Jae Edmonds, Fei TENG, Sha FU, Jiang Kejun, Alexandre C Koeberle, Alexandre Szklo, Andre FP Lucena, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Pedro Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Aayushi Awasthy, Manish Kumar Shrivastava, Ritu Mathur, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Jewell, Keywan Riahi, Amit Garg
Publication date:10/01/2015
Issue:INIS-FR--17-0724
Publisher:Modelling and Informing Low Emission Strategies-MILES Project Consortium (European Commission (EC))
Description:The present analysis of the contributions (INDCs) submitted by Member States to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the run-up to COP21 was conducted by leading research teams from Brazil, China, Japan, India, the United States and the European Union within the MILES Project (funded by the European Commission). By investigating the concrete implications of INDCs for the low-carbon transformation by and beyond 2030, from energy systems, buildings to transport and industry, this study complements the upcoming cutting-edge assessments by UNFCCC and UNEP of the impact of INDCs on global emissions and the global temperature goal. The'Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies'(MILES) project is an international research project bringing together 16 leading research teams in order to build capacity and knowledge on low-emissions development strategies. The objective of this report is to understand the implications of INDCs of the 5 countries and 1 region covered by the project (US, China, Japan, EU, Brazil and India), both at a national and global level, by investigating the concrete implications of INDCs for the low-carbon transformation by and beyond 2030, from energy systems, buildings to transport and industry. A significant transition appears in the electricity sector, where INDCs will further drive the transition towards renewables and other low-emissions forms of electricity production. In the six major economies assessed individually, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of electricity production falls by about 40% between 2010 and 2030 and renewable electricity becomes the …
Cited by:38
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A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches: Rejoinder to the review of “Making or breaking climate targets—The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for …
2015
Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Nico Bauer, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Nils Petermann, Valen…
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 99, 273-276
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Authors:Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Nico Bauer, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Nils Petermann, Valentina Bosetti, Adriana Marcucci, Sander Otto, Leonidas Paroussos, Shilpa Rao-Skirbekk, Tabaré Arroyo Currás, Shuichi Ashina, Johannes Bollen, Jiyong Eom, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Thomas Longden, Alban Kitous, Aurélie Méjean, Fuminori Sano, Michiel Schaeffer, Kenichi Wada, Pantelis Capros, Detlef P Van Vuuren, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christoph Bertram, Ruben Bibas, Jae Edmonds, Nils Johnson, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, David McCollum, Kejun Jiang
Publication date:10/01/2015
Journal:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume:99
Pages:273-276
Publisher:North-Holland
Description:We provide a rejoinder to a review (Rosen, 2015) of our original article “Making or breaking climate targets — the AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy” (Kriegler et al., 2015a). We have a substantial disagreement with the content of the review, and feel that it is plagued by a number of misconceptions about the nature of the AMPERE study and the integrated assessment modeling approach employed by it. We therefore see this rejoinder as an opportunity to clarify these misconceptions and advance the debate by providing a clearer understanding of the strengths, weaknesses, and ultimately the value of integrated assessment.
Cited by:14
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Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach
2015
Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Robert C Pietzcker, Eva Schmid, Elmar Kriegler, Ottm…
Nature Climate Change 5 (3), 235-239
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Robert C Pietzcker, Eva Schmid, Elmar Kriegler, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:03/01/2015
Journal:Nature Climate Change
Volume:5
Issue:3
Pages:235-239
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Description:Economic theory suggests that comprehensive carbon pricing is most efficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and previous studies indicated that the carbon price required for limiting global mean warming to 2 °C is between US$16 and US$73 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 (ref. ). Yet, a global implementation of such high carbon prices is unlikely to be politically feasible in the short term. Instead, most climate policies enacted so far are technology policies or fragmented and moderate carbon pricing schemes. This paper shows that ambitious climate targets can be kept within reach until 2030 despite a sub-optimal policy mix. With a state-of-the-art energy–economy model we quantify the interactions and unique effects of three major policy components: (1) a carbon price starting at US$7 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 to incentivize economy-wide mitigation, flanked by (2) support for low-carbon energy technologies to pave …
Cited by:223
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Locked into Copenhagen pledges—implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
2015
Keywan Riahi, Elmar Kriegler, Nils Johnson, Christoph Bertram, Michel Den Elzen, Jiyong…
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, 8-23
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Authors:Keywan Riahi, Elmar Kriegler, Nils Johnson, Christoph Bertram, Michel Den Elzen, Jiyong Eom, Michiel Schaeffer, Jae Edmonds, Morna Isaac, Volker Krey, Thomas Longden, Gunnar Luderer, Aurélie Méjean, David L McCollum, Silvana Mima, Hal Turton, Detlef P van Vuuren, Kenichi Wada, Valentina Bosetti, Pantelis Capros, Patrick Criqui, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Mikiko Kainuma, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:01/01/2015
Journal:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume:90
Pages:8-23
Publisher:North-Holland
Description:This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further “lock-in” of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications …
Cited by:477
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Building the Bridge from INDCs to 2 Degrees: Implications for the Paris Agreement
2015
Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, …
Beyond the Numbers: Understanding the Transformation Induced by INDCs, 59-66
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Ottmar Edenhofer, M den Elzen, D van Vuuren, H van Soest, T Spencer, R Pierfederici, H Waisman, M Colombier
Publication date:01/01/2015
Journal:Beyond the Numbers: Understanding the Transformation Induced by INDCs
Pages:59-66
Description:Building the Bridge from INDCs to 2 Degrees: Implications for the Paris Agreement :: PIKpublic English Privacy Policy Disclaimer Include files Advanced SearchBrowse START BASKET (0)Tools Item ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT Add to Basket Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary Building the Bridge from INDCs to 2 Degrees: Implications for the Paris Agreement Bertram, C., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Edenhofer, O., Elzen, M. d., Vuuren, D. v., Soest, H. v. (2015): Building the Bridge from INDCs to 2 Degrees: Implications for the Paris Agreement. - In: Beyond the Numbers: Understanding the Transformation Induced by INDCs, (IDDRI Study 05/2015), 59-66. Item is Released show all hide all Basic show hide Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23065 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23065_4 Genre: Contribution to …
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Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies
2015
Christoph Bertram, Nils Johnson, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Morna Isaac, Jiyong Eom
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, 62-72
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Nils Johnson, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Morna Isaac, Jiyong Eom
Publication date:01/01/2015
Journal:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume:90
Pages:62-72
Publisher:North-Holland
Description:Stringent long-term climate targets necessitate a limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are lacking. Using nine energy-economy models, we explore how policies pursued during the next two decades impact long-term transformation pathways towards stringent long-term climate targets. Less stringent near-term policies (i.e., those with larger emissions) consume more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the 2010–2030 period, which increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions after 2030. Furthermore, the larger near-term GHG emissions associated with less stringent policies are generated primarily by additional coal-based electricity generation. Therefore, to be successful in meeting the long-term target despite near-term emissions reductions that are weaker than those implied by cost-optimal mitigation …
Cited by:250
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Regional low-emission pathways from global models
2015
Heleen Van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drou…
(110.2015)
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Authors:Heleen Van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Jessica Jewell, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Massimo Tavoni, Michel den Elzen, Aayushi Awasthy, Katherine Calvin, Pantelis Capros, Leon Clarke, Michel Colombier, Teng Fei, Amit Garg, Fernanda Guedes, Mariana Imperio, Mikiko Kainuma, Jiang Kejun, Alexandre C Köberle, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, Alban Kitous, Paroussos Leonidas, Andre Lucena, Toshihiko Masui, Larissa Nogueira, Roberta Pierfederici, Bert Saveyn, Roberto Schaeffer, Fu Sha, Bianka Shoai, PR Shukla, Thomas Spencer, Alexandre Szklo, Henri Waisman
Publication date:01/01/2015
Issue:110.2015
Publisher:Nota di Lavoro
Description:Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 …
Cited by:4
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The effect of near-term climate policies on the achievability of ambitious long-term climate targets
2015
Christoph Bertram
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Authors:Christoph Bertram
Publication date:01/01/2015
Description:To keep the risks of climate change in check, the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting the increase of global mean temperature to no more than 2◦ C above pre-industrial levels. This target is, however, so far not underpinned by commensurate near-term policy measures. Given the commons nature of the climate problem, the solution will eventually require concerted actions on the international level. To this end, negotiations have been conducted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but so far only made little progress towards tangible emission reductions consistent with the 2◦ C limit. Instead, policy initiatives enacted so far have been regionally fragmented, incomprehensive and generally not ambitious enough to reach the stated 2◦ C targets in a cost-effective manner. Starting from this observation, this dissertation aims to answer the following three main questions: 1. What are the implications of a further delay of comprehensive climate policies? 2. What are the crucial determinants of adverse lock-ins and path-dependencies in the energy system induced by delayed action? 3. Which policy portfolio can keep the door to achieving ambitious targets at moderate costs open?
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Mitigating the climate action GAP with technology policies.
2014
Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Robert Pietzcker, Elmar Kriegler, Ottmar Edenhofer
Sustainable Energy Policy and Strategies for Europe, 14th IAEE European Conference, Oct…
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Authors:Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Robert Pietzcker, Elmar Kriegler, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:10/28/2014
Journal:Sustainable Energy Policy and Strategies for Europe, 14th IAEE European Conference, October 28-31, 2014
Publisher:International Association for Energy Economics
Description:Methods We employ the state-of-the-art energy-economy-climate-model REMIND7, 8 to analyse a variety of two-staged scenarios. In the initial period of 2013 until 2032, we assume a moderate carbon pricing regime deducted from a emission level target of 60.8 Gt CO2eq in 2030 consistent with the lenient end of currently pledged emission reductions3, 6. The carbon price is implemented either as an explicit tax of 7.4 US $/tCO2 in 2013 increasing at a yearly rate of 5%, or as an emissions cap yielding the same carbon price in absence of technology policies. In addition to a reference case without any technology policies, we consider three plausible complementary technology policy packages, which accelerate the energy system transformation by fostering the phase-in of lowcarbon technologies or by banning the construction of new coal-based energy conversion technologies, or a combination of both. To evaluate how well the policy packages prepare the energy system for the transitions necessary for a later achievement of a 2 C target, we then assess the costs and challenges for achieving the 2 C target with first-best policies from 2033 onwards. During the 2013-2032 period, the model does not anticipate the later increase of policy stringency. We contrast these cases to the (counterfactual) first-best benchmark, which assumes optimal policies starting in 2013.
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Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies
2014
Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Franziska Piontek, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer
Energy Policy 67, 882-894
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Authors:Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Franziska Piontek, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer
Publication date:04/01/2014
Journal:Energy Policy
Volume:67
Pages:882-894
Publisher:Elsevier
Description:It is often argued that fossil fuel subsidies hamper the transition towards a sustainable energy supply as they incentivize wasteful consumption. We assess implications of a subsidy phase-out for the mitigation of climate change and the low-carbon transformation of the energy system, using the global energy–economy model REMIND. We compare our results with those obtained by the International Energy Agency (based on the World Energy Model) and by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD-Model ENV-Linkages), providing the long-term perspective of an intertemporal optimization model. The results are analyzed in the two dimensions of subsidy phase-out and climate policy scenarios. We confirm short-term benefits of phasing-out fossil fuel subsidies as found in prior studies. However, these benefits are only sustained to a small extent in the long term, if dedicated climate …
Cited by:139
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Report on improving the representation of existing energy policies (taxes and subsidies) in iams
2014
D Jewell, J McCollum, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Loïc Berger, Christoph Bertram, Hannah…
(3.1)
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Authors:D Jewell, J McCollum, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Loïc Berger, Christoph Bertram, Hannah Daly, Birgit Fais, David Gernaat, Johannes Emmerling, Leonidas Paroussos, Bert Saveyn, Detlef van Vuuren
Publication date:01/01/2014
Issue:3.1
Publisher:Technical report, ADVANCE Deliverable
Description:Achieving a sustainable energy transition requires a rapid phase out of today’s fossil fuels and rapid introduction of clean energy technologies. However, achieving such a change means overcoming interests and policies which are embedded in and support existing energy systems. Arguably, one of the main policy instruments supporting fossil fuels today is subsidies. End-use subsidies to fossil fuels and electricity consumption amount to some $500 billion or about 0.7% of global GDP (IMF 2013; International Energy Agency 2013b). Can a sustainable transition be achieved in the face of these distortionary policy measures supporting the status quo? In the last five years there has been an increasing policy focus on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. In 2009, G20 leaders committed to" rationalize and phase-out... fossil fuel subsidies"(G20 2011). In the wake of this commitment, there has been increasing scientific attention and resources on understanding the fossil fuel subsidy landscape as well as the role these policies play in hindering growth in renewable energy and improvement in energy efficiency and what impact subsidy removal would have on the energy system.
Cited by:1
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Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets
2013
Gunnar Luderer, Robert C Pietzcker, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshause…
Environmental Research Letters 8 (3), 034033
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Robert C Pietzcker, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshausen, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:09/17/2013
Journal:Environmental Research Letters
Volume:8
Issue:3
Pages:034033
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Description:While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy–economy–climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ∼0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable …
Cited by:288
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Economic Mitigation Challenges: How Further Delay Closes the Door for Climate Targets–Policy Brief–
2013
Gunnar Luderer, Nils Petermann, Robert Pietzcker, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Ma…
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nils Petermann, Robert Pietzcker, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshausen, Ottmar Edenhofer
Publication date:09/01/2013
Description:2 Study design To study the technological, institutional and economic requirements of meeting the 2 C target, we used the integrated energy-economy-climate model REMIND in combination with the probabilistic climate model MAGICC to and evaluated a wide range of scenarios combining different assumptions regarding the start date of comprehensive global climate policies and technology availability.
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Technical Appendix Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
1997
Ryna Cui, Maria A Borrero, Christoph Bertram, Jenna Behrendt, Audrey Rader, Mel George,…
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1 (4), 311-39
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Authors:Ryna Cui, Maria A Borrero, Christoph Bertram, Jenna Behrendt, Audrey Rader, Mel George, Dmitry Churlyaev, Alexandra Kreis, Jiehong Lou, Xiangwen Fu, Andy Miller, Tiruwork B Tibebu, Kowan O’Keefe, Mengye Zhu, Xinyue Li, Claire Squire, Alicia Zhao, Jordan Snarski, Bhavika Buddi, Nate Hultman
Publication date:12/01/1997
Journal:Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Volume:1
Issue:4
Pages:311-39
Description:The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) is a global market equilibrium model that combines economic, energy, land use, and climate systems to analyze the interactions between human activities and global environmental changes. It is designed to assess the impacts of various policy scenarios and technology options on energy use, land use change, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. 1 GCAM is a hierarchical market equilibrium model. The equilibrium in each period is solved by finding a set of market prices such that supplies and demands are equal in all simulated markets. As a dynamic recursive model, GCAM operates in 5-year time-increments till modeling year 2100, with each new period starting from the conditions that emerged in the last. After it solves each period, the model uses the resulting state of the world, including the consequences of decisions made in that period–such as resource depletion, capital stock retirements and installations, and changes to the landscape–and moves to the next time step and performs the same exercise. We use GCAM v. 6.0 in this exercise. GCAM has previously been used to examine impacts of mitigation policies and technology deployment on greenhouse gas emissions. 2, 3, 4 GCAM tracks emissions of 16 different species of GHGs and air pollutants from energy, agriculture, land use, and other industrial systems. In GCAM, the world is disaggregated into 32 economic regions, the resolution at which socioeconomics, energy, and market processes (including global trade) are modeled. Water flows and land use are modeled in more than 200 and 300 regions, respectively. The Earth …
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magclass: Data Class and Tools for Handling Spatial-Temporal Data
Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Markus Bonsch, Florian Humpenoeder, Steph…
Zenodo
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Authors:Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Markus Bonsch, Florian Humpenoeder, Stephen Bi, Kristine Karstens, Debbora Leip, Pascal Sauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Anastasis Giannousakis, David Klein, Ina Neher, Michaja Pehl, Anselm Schultes, Miodrag Stevanovic, Xiaoxi Wang, Felicitas Beier, Mika Pflüger, Oliver Richters
Journal:Zenodo
Description:Data class for increased interoperability working with spatial-temporal data together with corresponding functions and methods (conversions, basic calculations and basic data manipulation). The class distinguishes between spatial, temporal and other dimensions to facilitate the development and interoperability of tools build for it. Additional features are name-based addressing of data and internal consistency checks (eg checking for the right data order in calculations).
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mrremind: MadRat REMIND Input Data Library
Lavinia Baumstark, Anastasis Giannousakis, Renato Rodrigues, Antoine Levesque, Jonas Oe…
Zenodo
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Authors:Lavinia Baumstark, Anastasis Giannousakis, Renato Rodrigues, Antoine Levesque, Jonas Oeser, Christoph Bertram, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Aman Malik, Felix Schreyer, Bjoern Soergel, Marianna Rottoli, Abhijeet Mishra, Alois Dirnaichner, Michaja Pehl, David Klein, Jessica Strefler, Lukas Feldhaus, Regina Brecha, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Stephen Bi
Journal:Zenodo
Description:The mrremind package (https://github. com/pik-piam/mrremind) contains data preprocessing for the REMIND model (https://github. com/remindmodel/remind)
Cited by:1
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REMIND-COALogit
Stephen Bi, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Le…
Zenodo
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Authors:Stephen Bi, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Cornelia Auer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Jan Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Markus Haller, Jerome Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Alexander Körner, Elmar Kriegler, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Lorenz, Sylvie Ludig, Michael Lüken, Aman Malik, Susanne Manger, Leon Merfort, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Michaja Pehl, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Niklas Roming, Marianna Rottoli, Eva Schmidt, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Björn Sörgel, Falko Ueckerdt
Journal:Zenodo
Description:The version of the REMIND-COALogit coupled model used in the Nature Climate Change article" Coal-Exit Alliance Must Confront Freeriding Sectors to Propel Paris-Aligned Momentum". This is the initial implementation of the dynamic policy evaluation (DPE) methodology, tailored here toward analysis of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA).
Cited by:1
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REMIND-DIETER coupling
Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Chen Chris Gong, Adrian Odenweller, Lavinia Baumstark, Chri…
Zenodo
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Authors:Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Chen Chris Gong, Adrian Odenweller, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Marian Leimbach, Robert Pietzcker, Jessica Strefler, Tino Aboumahboub, Gabriel Abrahão, Cornelia Auer, Falk Benke, Stephen Bi, Jan Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Markus Haller, Robin Hasse, Jérôme Hilaire, Johanna Hoppe, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Katarzyna Kowalczyk, Elmar Kriegler, Antoine Levesque, Sylvie Ludig, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Simón Moreno, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Michaja Pehl, Franziska Piontek, Laura Popin, Sebastian Rauner, Oliver Richters, Christof Schötz, Renato Rodrigues, Falko Ueckerdt, Alexander Zerrahn, Felix Schreyer, Björn Sörgel, Pascal Weigmann, Wolf-Peter Schill, Philipp Verpoort, Marianna Rottoli
Journal:Zenodo
Description:REMIND - DIETER coupling - ADS Now on home page ads icon ads Enable full ADS view ADS REMIND - DIETER coupling Luderer, Gunnar ; Bauer, Nico ; Gong, Chen Chris ; Odenweller, Adrian ; Baumstark, Lavinia ; Bertram, Christoph ; Leimbach, Marian ; Pietzcker, Robert ; Strefler, Jessica ; Aboumahboub, Tino ; Abrahão, Gabriel ; Auer, Cornelia ; Benke, Falk ; Bi, Stephen ; Dietrich, Jan ; Dirnaichner, Alois ; Giannousakis, Anastasis ; Haller, Markus ; Hasse, Robin ; Hilaire, Jérôme ; Hoppe, Johanna ; Klein, David ; Koch, Johannes ; Kowalczyk, Katarzyna ; Kriegler, Elmar ; Levesque, Antoine ; Ludig, Sylvie ; Malik, Aman ; Merfort, Anne ; Merfort, Leon ; Moreno, Simón ; Mouratiadou, Ioanna ; Pehl, Michaja ; Piontek, Franziska ; Popin, Laura ; Rauner, Sebastian ; Richters, Oliver ; Schötz, Christof ; Rodrigues, Renato ; Ueckerdt, Falko ; Zerrahn, Alexander ; Schreyer, Felix ; Sörgel, Björn ; Weigmann, Pascal ; Schill, Wolf…
Cited by:1
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Linking Climate and Sustainable Development: National and Global Pathways
K Riahi, V Krey, C Bertram, E Kriegler, G Luderer, D van Vuuren, M Roelfsema, H van Soe…
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Authors:K Riahi, V Krey, C Bertram, E Kriegler, G Luderer, D van Vuuren, M Roelfsema, H van Soest, R Schaeffer, S Pachauri, M Pahle, R Mathur, V Bosetti, L Drouet, Z Vrontisi, CD-LINKS Consortium
Publisher:< bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung>>
Description:This report summarizes the findings of the CD-LINKS project, which investigates the connections between climate change policies and sustainable development goals across G20 nations. The project uses integrated assessment models (IAMs) to analyze the impact of current national climate policies, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and pathways to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature targets. Results indicate that current policies and NDCs are insufficient to meet the 2°C and 1.5°C targets. The report emphasizes the importance of effort sharing and policy design to maximize synergies and avoid trade-offs in climate and sustainable development strategies.
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Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
SOEST Heleen VAN, REIS ALELUIA, BAPTISTA Luiz BERNARDO, Christoph BERTRAM, Jacques DESP…
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
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Authors:SOEST Heleen VAN, REIS ALELUIA, BAPTISTA Luiz BERNARDO, Christoph BERTRAM, Jacques DESPRÉS, Laurent DROUET, ELZEN Michel DEN, Panagiotis FRAGKOS, Oliver FRICKO, Shinichiro FUJIMORI, Neil GRANT, JH HARMSEN, Gokul IYER, Kimon KERAMIDAS, Alexandre KOBERLE, Elmar KRIEGLER, Aman MALIK, Shivika MITTAL, Ken OSHIRO, Keywan RIAHI, Mark ROELFSEMA, RUIJVEN Bas VAN, Roberto SCHAEFFER, HERRAN Diego SILVA, Massimo TAVONI, Gamze UNLU, Toon VANDYCK, VUUREN Detlef VAN
Journal:NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Description:Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.
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Technical Appendix: Evaluating a High Ambition Pathway for Decarbonization in the Republic of Korea
Jenna Behrendt, Maria Borrero, Mel George, Christoph Bertram, Audrey Rader, Dmitry Chur…
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Authors:Jenna Behrendt, Maria Borrero, Mel George, Christoph Bertram, Audrey Rader, Dmitry Churlyaev, Alexandra Kreis, Jiehong Lou, Nate Hultman, Ryna Cui, N Hultman, R Cui
Description:The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-CGS) is a global market equilibrium model that combines economic, energy, land use, and climate systems to analyze the interactions between human activities and global environmental changes. It is designed to assess the impacts of various policy scenarios and technology options on energy use, land use change, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. 1 GCAM-CGS is a dynamic recursive model, meaning that decision-makers do not know the future when planning today. After it solves each period, the model then uses the resulting state of the world, including the consequences of decisions made in that period–such as resource depletion, capital stock retirements and installations, and changes to the landscape–and then moves to the next time step and performs the same exercise. GCAM-CGS operates in 5-year time-increments, with each new period starting from the conditions that emerged in the last. GCAM-CGS has previously been used to examine impacts of mitigation policies and technology deployment on greenhouse gas emissions. 2, 3 GCAM-CGS tracks emissions of 16 different species of GHGs and air pollutants from energy, agriculture, land use, and other industrial systems. In GCAM-CGS, the world is disaggregated into 32 economic regions, the resolution at which socioeconomics, energy, and market processes (including global trade) are modeled. Water flows and land use are modeled in more than 200 and 300 regions, respectively. The Earth system model (ie, carbon-cycle climate module) Hector is the climate model within GCAM-CGS. 4 GCAM-CGS is a hierarchical …
Resources:[PDF] from umd.edu
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Deutsche Bundesbank No 30/2024
Mark A Weth, Markus Baltzer, Christoph Bertram, Jérôme Hilaire, Craig Johnston
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Authors:Mark A Weth, Markus Baltzer, Christoph Bertram, Jérôme Hilaire, Craig Johnston
Description:Results Our analysis suggests that firms are exposed to heterogenous valuation changes across regions and sectors in response to a revision in market expectations. The resulting impact differentials are driven by the cost of greenhouse gas emissions of firms on the one hand and their financial performance on the other. Conditional on a Paris-aligned decarbonization, valuation losses remain in a single digit percentage range for a majority of firms under review. However, up to 18% of all firms (13% of market capitalization under review) lose more than half of their stock market value. The size and frequency of these losses depend largely on the assumed baseline scenario, the cost pass-through and the IAM scenario projections that we leverage. Since the carbon price trajectories required for a net zero transition vary across IAMs under review, this bandwidth is also reflected in derived equity valuations.
Resources:[PDF] from bundesbank.de
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Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China’s netzero transition
Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pie…
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Authors:Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Michaja Pehl, Gunnar Luderer
Description:Decarbonizing China’s energy system requires both greening the power supply and end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric vehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically and institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we analyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use electrification in China’s net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show that even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification rate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity of typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with incumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China’s current power mix due to efficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in an additional cumulative emission of 28%(4%) of the global 1.5 C (2 C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a power sector transition without unexpected delays.
Resources:[PDF] from researchgate.net
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2 C and SDGs: United they stand, divided they fall? Supplementary Information
Christoph von Stechow, Jan C Minx, Keywan Riahi, Jessica Jewell, David L McCollum, Max …
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Authors:Christoph von Stechow, Jan C Minx, Keywan Riahi, Jessica Jewell, David L McCollum, Max W Callaghan, Christoph Bertram, Gunnar Luderer, Giovanni Baiocchi
Description:The supplementary information (SI) is structured as follows: SI section 1 provides a brief introduction into energy-economy-climate models, their differences and the rationale for model inter-comparison projects. SI section 2 gives an overview of important limitations of integrated models to address implications for some non-climate sustainability objectives. SI section 3 explains the link between a set of energy-related SDGs and other sustainable energy objectives, SD risks and associated indicators used in the analysis. SI section 4 lays out the main advantages of the model inter-comparison project AMPERE for such analysis. Supplementary figures and data are shown in SI section 5.
Resources:[PDF] from tib.eu
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